El Tigre Newsletter, Week of August 15th, 2022

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New week, new opportunities.

Many traders and investors overcomplicate a trade or an investment, not because they want to, but rather because there is just so much information out there. 

I believe in the mindset that less is more. I ran across this quote on Twitter and thought I share it with you guys. 

The Paradox of Effort

You have to put in more effort to make something appear effortless.

Effortless, elegant performances are simply the result of a large volume of consistent, effortful practice.

Small things become big things. Simple is not simple.

I want you to keep that in mind as you read and think about just how simple and straightforward I am presenting these ideas below and I hope it helps you guys make money in the stock market. 

For the week of August 15th, 2022 we have a few economic indicators we should pay attention to. I believe the information below will be good just to have in the back of our heads but should not impact the overall stock market too drastically.

We have FOMC Meeting Minutes released on Wednesday.  Minutes will be released here at 2 pm EST https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases.htm

You can always track the latest release of these stats at: https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar

Economic Calendar

On the earnings front, we have a few heavy hitters but no market movers. 

Home Depot and Walmart will report earnings on August 16th before the market open. 

Lows and Target will report earnings on Wednesday before the market open. 

Companies Reporting Earnings this week

Companies I am looking at this week

SPY 

The S&P index ETF finally pushed well above the $415 resistance level and right into our new $429 / 430 resistance level.

Given the nature of the move along with the positive MACD / bullish  MACD, rising simple moving average, and rising exponential moving average, I believe we will push well above the $430 price level and head higher to $447.56.

SPY monthly timeframe is sitting right below the 9-day ema, once we move above it, we should see the price continue to rise. 

Remember, whenever the price is above the EMA, we tend to lean bullish. 

I see similarities between this current month’s price action with that of 2020’s price action.

  1. Two months ago, the stock price fell below the 30-day simple moving average.
  2. The previous month, the stock price went back above the 30-day moving average.
  3. This current month the stock price is above the 30-day moving average.
  4. The current price is heading towards the 14-day moving average; if we close above the 14-day moving average, the bottom is officially in.

The 2day time frame shows a cleaner move to the upside. 

$AMZN 

Amazon’s stock price is consolidating below the $144 level. A clean break above $144 can start a strong rally seeing stock price push higher to $157. 

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$TSLA 

Tesla’s chart is showing a cup and handle pattern, a strong move above the $940 level can mark the beginning of a run-up. 

Realistically, I currently do not see any real resistance between $940 and $1,000. 

Contracts for this week are standard. 

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NVDA 

An ascending triangle pattern is appearing on $NVDA and I am looking for us to break above $192 for our next leg up. 

The company is set to report second quarter earnings next week on August 24th.