El Tigre Watchlist, Sunday July 10th, 2022

$SPX (weekly) we have been consolidating sideways for the past 4 weeks and that’s clear on the weekly timeframe.

Last week’s candle close did not provide us with a clear direction as the weekly candle closed in the range of the prior week.
For the last 4 weeks, we have been slowly consolidating towards the upside. Going into this week, we need $SPX to close above $3,896.8

 

We are currently monitoring how price action is going to react toward the 5 day exponential moving average (EMA). Ideally, we would want to see the price to hold above the 5-day and then push higher towards the 9 day EMA, blue line. However, since we have been in a downtrend, and are currently below the EMA’s this would be trading against the current trend. Be very careful. 

$SPX (daily) we cleared the daily 5/9/20ema moving averages and are currently in between support and resistance.

Several potential short entries :

  1. Wait for daily a close below 3858 plus 5/9/20ema which are converged together.
  2. Wait for a bullish breakout move over current horizontal resistance toward weekly 9ema and descending channel resistance then following rejection there can either scale in to a short position or wait for false breakout reversal moves back below 3916.
  3. The third scenario would be a massive rally above 9ema which would set up a date with weekly 20ema and daily supply level at 4096. (note current weekly moving average price levels will be lower next week as they trend lower)

 

$CL_F crude oil future (monthly, log scale)

Dark cloud cover in June following 6 straight green months and at the peak of the rally from the 2020 lows. Also coming off rejection at major monthly supply (from the 2008 crash). Oil has participated in major market corrections in the past as seen in recent examples in 2020 and 2008 so there’s potential this could signal the next strong leg down in the market. Current monthly candle holding above monthly 9ema with 3 weeks left until candle close. In 2008, we had the monthly bearish engulfing reversal at the top, followed by a red candle close above 9ema and then continued weakness/crash.

$CL_F (weekly) double top bearish doji evening star reversal followed by sideways consolidation for past 2 weeks and now a weekly hammer print but if you ignore the wick, we closed red, lower than prior 2 weeks and below weekly 5/9/20ema converged.

$XLE Energy sector (monthly, log scale) bearish engulfing reversal at the top of the rally that started at the 2020 pandemic lows. Also false breakout reversal back below horizontal resistance. If we lose currents supports at channel backtest and UTL (uptrend line), we could see a strong sell off.

$XLE (weekly) held above the channel backtest and UTL support. Remains below 5/9/20ema but extended so we could see a relief rally while allowing the moving averages to catch up to price. If we close below current dual support, that would be the obvious bearish signal.

 

$IBB Biotech(Monthly, log scale) pushing back above 122 level and currently bullish monthly confirmation of previous 2 hammer candles off major channel support. Approaching monthly 9ema at 129.77 which should act as resistance.

$IBB (weekly) had a bullish dual resistance breakout (double bottom and DTL)and closed above 5/9/20ema weekly. Now it has monthly 9ema and volume POC waiting above as potential reversal area.

$HGX Housing sector (monthly, arithmetic scale) Strong rejection off purple trendline which has been a key inflection point in the past. Following back to back months of spinning top (indecision) candles below purple TL resistance, we had a strong rejection candle in June. Current monthly candle rally off the horizontal support level. Historically when housing sector corrects, $SPX eventually follows.

$HGX (weekly) next up is the weekly 20ema which should act as resistance in a downtrend just as it had been strong support during the rallies in 2019 and 2020.

$IYR real estate ETF (Monthly, arithmetic scale) Following the base breakdown from ATHs, we now have a bearish monthly candle close below prior horizontal breakout level (false breakout reversal). Similar situation happened in 2008 which lead to the market crash so bearish potential is there.

 

$IYT transportation(monthly, log scale) Prior months potential bullish hammer candle was negated as we closed lower with a red candle. Currently sitting above backtest support.

$SMH semiconductor (monthly, log scale) rallying off the monthly channel support.

$SMH (weekly) bullish piercing line reversal off monthly channel support next up. Weekly 9ema resistance and horizontal backtest waiting above.

$XLF financial (monthly, log scale) Closed below monthly 5/9/20ema converged. Now backtesting major horizontal breakout resistance level. Break below would obviously be bearish.

$XLP consumer staples (monthly, log scale ) shooting star to bearish engulfing reversal at ATHs. Monthly currently below 2 year uptrend line support with 5/9/20ema converged and sitting at horizontal support. MACD bearcross

$XLP (weekly) working on potential H&S. Watch for lower high (right shoulder) either at current 9ema or 20ema above which could start the next wave down toward the neckline support.

$XLV health care(weekly, log scale) backtesting uptrend line and 20ema resistance.

 

$XLY consumer discretionary (weekly, log scale) (includes $AMZN $TSLA) chopping around in box range for the past 2 months.

 

$KWEB (weekly) backtesting prior horizontal resistance level and holding above weekly 5/9/20ema. Weekly close below 31.60 would be bearish.

$HYG High yield corp bond (monthly , log scale) closed below red UTL support and channel into another larger channel support which has been tested many times before.

$HYG (weekly) hasnt gone anywhere the past 4 weeks as it’s consolidating in box range above the monthly channel support. Could use a relief rally as monthly and weekly both extended. If we rally further above, watch weekly 9ema and the black channel backtest.

$BTC (weekly, log scale) continues to consolidate sideways above weekly demand and prior ATH support. Touched weekly 5ema for the first time in about 3 weeks so its taking a break from an extended move.

$TLT (monthly) After hammering above the life time channel support and double bottom in June, current month starting off weak with bearish first week.

$TLT (weekly) rejected hard off 9ema and negated prior weeks bullish candle.

$AAPL (monthly, log cale) rallying above backtest support

$AAPL (weekly) closed above 9ema and headed toward 20ema and current box resistance around 150 where we watch for potential reversal on the daily timeframe.

 

$MSFT (monthly, log scale) bearish monthly close below 20ema/sma. So far rallying above the long term channel support.

$MSFT (weekly) rejected at 9ema and did not have bullish follow-through after the morning star reversal.

$GOOGL (monthly, log scale) following inside bar the previous month, if we close above last month’s highs it will be a bullish inside up move with close above monthly 20ema. Still too early in the month and will need to see how the candle closes in relation to 5/9ema as well.

$GOOGL (weekly) 11 weeks of sideways consolidation and looking to break out but will need to close above weekly 20ema/sma above. Watch for rejection there and if we push further above we have the backtest of prior horizontal support (now resistance).

$AMZN (monthly, log scale) consolidating above the monthly backtest support.

$AMZN (weekly) chopping sideways above horizontal support. Breakdown below would be the short signal. If we rally above 9ema (orange) then expect rejection at 20ema/sma which should line up with the horizontal resistance level around 126.

 

$TSLA (monthly) so far we’ve had the breakdown below consolidation and close below 5/9/20ema

$TSLA (weekly) consolidating sideways for 8 weeks. Weekly 20ema/sma downtrending from above.

$BRK.A (monthly, log scale) false breakout reversal confirmed as we closed back below prior breakout level with close below 5/9/20ema. First close below monthly 20ema/sma since march 2020. MACD bearcross.

 

$UNH (weekly, log scale) following the bullish breakout over DTL the week before, held weekly 5/9/20ema support and closed slightly higher.

$JNJ (monthly, Log scale) consolidating for the past 3 month following breakout. Remaining vulnerable to potential failed breakout move with monthly close below 173.

 

$META (monthly, log) inside down monthly close into new lows of the year and right above potential H&S neckline and far rallying off the support to start the month.

 

$META (weekly) consolidating sideways for 4 weeks. Downtrending weekly 9ema approaching along with 20ema/sma further above.

$V (monthly, L0g scale) uptrend line and triangle breakdown with 5/9/20ema converged. Currently holding above horizontal support.

Most of the setups are demand/long setups. Remember you can have a higher time frame bearish outlook in the market and still daytrade these levels when they trigger for intraday gains. Remember you don’t have take every setup but knowing that you have plenty of solid setups to fall back on will make you more disciplined and avoid chop/weak/boredom trades. (Do not waste time looking for a trade or watching intraday 5/15min candles hoping for something to happen. Find a setup, set alerts, and forget about it until it triggers) Make sure to review prior triggered setups and see how they react. Also, if $SPY and the rest of the market is selling off aggressively and you are uncertain/confused – BEST to pass on long plays or narrow focus onto just trading $SPY or sitting on hands. 1st Goal is to not lose money.

 

$AAL (daily) short setup at 16.10

 

$AMZN (daily) short setup at 122

$ARKK (daily) short setup at 49.74

$ATVI (daily) short setup at 79.08

$BA (daily) short setup at 152.91

$BKNG (daily) long setup at 1653

$BLNK (daily) short setup 19.50

$BYND (daily) short setup at 38.80

$C (daily) short setup at 51.20 and long setup at 43.51

$CCL (daily) long setup at 8.01

 

$DIS (daily) short setup at 106.79

$F (daily) long setup at 10.06

$FB (daily) short setup at 194.67

 

$GME (daily) long setup at 94.05

$GS (daily) long setup at 274.27 and short setup at 318.28

$LCID (daily) short setup at 24.64

$LULU (daily) short setup at 306.55

$MS (daily) long setup at 70.87 and short setup at 84.15

$MTCH (daily) short setup at 84.25

$NIO (daily) short setup at 25.40

$NKE (daily) short setup at 120.90

 

$OKTA (daily) short setup at 117.75

 

$PLTR (daily) short setup at 10.53

 

$PTON (daily) short setup at 12.22

$QS (daily) short setup at 11.85

 

$SNOW (daily) short setup at 178.75

 

$SQ (daily) short setup at 84.60

$TGT (daily) short setup at 154.43