El Tigre Watchlist, Wednesday May 18th, 2022

$SPX (monthly)


Following the breakdown from April, SPX has now traded well below February, March, and April’s low prices.

We are also now trading below 14 day simple moving average ( blue ) and above the 30-day simple moving average (orange ).

Our MACD has a bearish crossover and seems to be increasing become more and more bearish. 

Now the question is not are we going to drop, but rather when and how fast are we going to drop. As well when well we retest the $4,118 price level. 

In my personal opinion, I have a new low of $3,812.36 coming in before we test those highs again. 

SPX, monthly

 

$SPX (weekly)

Following the double top breakdown around the $4,613 level and the falling below the middle of the regression line ( red line), we continue to trade lower and make prior support levels new resistance levels. We are seeing buying step in trying to move the price back, however, the bears still remain in control as we can see with the long wicked candles in prior weekly candles. Last week’s candle also rejected the $4,307 level. We have short-term targets at $3812.

 

 

$SPX (4 hour, 360day)

we currently seeing multiple rejections of the 14-day and 30-day simple moving averages and MACD continues to be bearish (red). As long as I keep seeing this, I do believe we have more downside to come.

 

Apple, $AAPL (monthly)

 

Back in April, Apple’s chart presented us with its first negative MACD in several months, and going into May, the MACD has only become increasingly bearish.

Our 14-day simple moving average remains above the 30-day moving average, however, we see price action trading in between the two, suggesting that price action may continue to bearish in the upcoming days.

We are also trading in the lower end of the regression channel.

 

 

Apple, AAPL (weekly) 

Looking underneath the hood, we see why the monthly candle has been so bearish. 

The weekly 14-day simple moving average has officially crossed below the 30-day simple moving average, price action has closed below both moving averages and MACD has been bearish crossed over for some time now. 

Looking at the below chart, we want price action to continue to close below last week’s closing price of $147.11. 

A dip below $138.25 this week would be ideal as this would create a new monthly low, however, it is not necessary for this week. 

 

May 18th, 2022 Update: 

 

Today’s closing price was well below my confirmation of $141.8 – as long we stay below this level I do see more downside and want to see us break below the $138.65 level. 

 

MACD is still pretty bearish, the selling has been pretty slow and steady, with the chart being easy to read. 

Microsoft, MSFT ( 360 day , 4 hour) 

 

A bearish head and shoulder pattern has formed with $254 being the neckline. They have ex-dividend day on May 18th  – so we could potentially see increase in selling hereafter some investor gets their dividend payment and decide to jump ship.