Tag: covid

#17 From Wallstreet to Cancun, A Recap of this Weeks Ice Age

Friday, February 19th Closing Price

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. DISCORD RECAP
  2. MERCHANDISE
  3. EDUCATIONAL LEARNING SEGMENT
  4. UPCOMING WEEK EVENTS & EARNINGS
  5. MONDAY
  6. TUESDAY
  7. WEDNESDAY
  8. THURSDAY
  9. FRIDAY
  10. LAST WEEK’S EARNING

 

“Why wait to do something next week when you can do it right now?” – Frank Mercado

 

DISCORD RECAP (2/16 – 2/19)

We had a number of great trades last week but the winner is definitely $RIOT.

RIOT is a company that is focused on building, supporting and operating Blockchain.

With Bitcoin making new record highs, we thought it would be best to trade those companies that will help Bitcoin succeed.

We bought shares around $60 and option contracts.

Our members made over $3,000 in profits on this trade alone.

JOIN OUR DISCORD

www.tigerwolfcapital.com/discord

EDUCATIONAL LEARNING SEGMENT

Don’t chase the companies that are making every headline, follow the companies that are supporting them.

 

Bitcoin has been a topic of conversation for the past few months.

In the past 3 month, Bitcoin has surged over 200%. Nice return on investment.

 

If you invested $1,000 in Bitcoin you would have $3,085 today.

 

However, if you invested the same $1,000 in $RIOT, a company that engages in the provision of investment services to the blockchain ecosystem as well as manufacturing in-vitro substances, you would have $10,564.

 

UPCOMING WEEK 2/22 – 02/26

EVENTS & TALKS

Monday February 22 2021:

  • Fed Bowman Speech 3:30 PM EST

Tuesday February 23 2021:

  • Fed Chair Powell Testimony 10 AM EST ( Two Day event)

  • Consumer Confidence FEB 10 AM EST

  • S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY DEC 9:00 AM EST – With a reported 10% national price increase, amid a housing shortage it is clear that the price increase may not be slowing down anytime soon.

Wednesday February 24 2021: 

  • New Home Sales MoM JAN 10:00 AM EST – The new homes sold bounced back after a pullback in December, but there continues to be a housing shortage and price volatility hampering prospective buyers.

  • Fed Chair Powell Testimony 10:00 AM EST

  • Fed Brainard Speech 10:30 AM EST

  • Fed Clarida Speech 1:00 PM EST

Thursday February 25 2021:  

  • Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 AM EST

  • GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est 8:30 AM EST

  • Fed Quarles Speech 11:10 AM EST

  • Fed Williams Speech 3 PM EST

Friday, February 26, 2021: 

  • US Budget Plan FY 2022

  • Personal Spending MoM JAN 8:30 AM EST

 

EARNINGS

Image

Monday, February 22, 2021

Before Market Open

$RCL – Royal Caribbean has been forced to dock all their ships, and they have to remain running while docked. Royal Caribbean has been burning cash throughout the pandemic, and their business model requires them to have full ships to overcome the cruise costs. Expected EPS of –$5.40 and Revenue of $52.14M, with expected quarterly revenue to decrease by -97%.

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Before Market Open

$HD – Home Depot has had success throughout the pandemic with people staying at home and committing to DIY projects at home. Home Depot is the largest home improvement retailer, and they offer a wide array of products. Expected EPS of $2.74 and Revenue of $30.45B, with expected quarterly revenue to increase 18%.

$MCY – Macy’s was at one point the world’s largest retailer and since then have fallen from grace and accrued many losses with the growth of online shopping. Along with the fall of retail service due to online shopping, Covid-19 has curbed tons of retail shopping and hurt Macy’s business severely. Expected EPS of $.40 and Revenue of $6.51B, with expected quarterly revenue to decrease by -22%.

After Market Close

$SQ – Square provides financial services as a point of sale system and payment taker. They can receive no-touch payment, their software for collecting payment using a phone, and several other in-house payment options. Square has had a unique 2020 with its various payment options, which has allowed them to be successful. Expected EPS of $.34 and Revenue of $3.1B, with expected quarterly revenue to increase by 136%.

$INTU – Intuit is the leader in DIY taxes and financial management services for small businesses and individual consumers. They own several flagship products: Quickbooks, TurboTax, and Mint. Individuals turn to TurboTax for an easy-to-use and cost-effective way to file taxes. Intuit is reporting its annual and quarterly earnings. Expected EPS for Q2 is $.13, and revenue is $1.57B, and quarterly revenue is expected to decrease by -7.4%, while annual revenue is expected to increase by 16.2%.

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Before Market Open

$LOW – Lowe’s, the tertiary home improvement company, operates a very similar business model to Home Depot as they are substitutes for each other. Consumers are spending more money on DIY projects and home improvement, which can be reflected in their earnings. They have an expected EPS of $1.36 and Revenues of $19.33B, with expected quarterly revenue to increase by 20%.

$JMIA – “The Amazon of Africa” Jumia provides an e-commerce service that offers a wide variety of services and products across Africa. This stock has recently had a long bullish run and has much promise from investors. Expected EPS of -$.46 and Revenue of $50M, we can expect Revenue for Jumia to increase in the future.

After Market Close

$NVDA – Nvidia is one of the leaders in the semiconductor industry and provides chips to several companies across several sectors. They offer microchips to data centers, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and a GPU platform. Expected EPS of $3.26 and Revenue of $4.83B, with expected quarterly revenue to increase by 55%.

$BKNG – Booking is one of the leading online hospitality services providers and has been struck throughout Covid-19. Booking derives revenue from agents accommodating trips and merchant revenue from users to services. Expected EPS of -$4.43 and Revenue of $1.17B, with expected quarterly revenue to decrease by -65%.

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Before Market Open

$PLUG – A company we have kept a strong focus on in the last two months and many of their sales. Plug is one of the leaders in the alternative energy/hydrogen fuel cell, and moving forward, demand for their products will begin to increase exponentially. They have an expected EPS of –$.09 and Revenue of $83.34M, with expected quarterly revenue to decrease by 9%.

$DPZ – Domino’s Pizza is the second-largest pizza chain globally; they have made the entire process of delivery much more efficient. Domino’s serves competitive-priced pizza, easy order access, and efficient service by new technology. They have an expected EPS of $3.85 and Revenue of $1.38B, with expected quarterly revenue to increase by 20%.

$BBY – Best Buy is a leading retailer of technology products and services. While people are continuing to work from home, they rely on Best Buy for new products and Geek Squad services to fix their existing tech products. They have an expected EPS of $3.64 and Revenue of $17.20B, with expected quarterly revenue to increase by 13.2%.

$MRNA – Moderna is one of the three pharmaceutical companies that could produce and manufacture a feasible Covid-19 Vaccine to be distributed throughout the world. Soon, Moderna will continue to generate extraordinary revenues after spending absurd amounts on R & D. They have an expected EPS of -$.17 and Revenue of $326.58M, with an expected quarterly revenue increase of 2,223.6%.

After Market Close

$CRM – Salesforce performs on-demand CRM applications that allow customers to manage and share all of their sales, support, and marketing. Salesforce offers a unique platform that enables companies to share, exchange, and install applications with a few simple clicks. They have an expected EPS of $.81 and Revenue of $5.68B, with an expected quarterly revenue increase of 17%.

$BYND – Beyond Meat is an ever-expanding meat alternative that is becoming highly popular with partnerships with global conglomerate companies. They offer various products that can serve any vegan or non-meat consumer taste. They have an expected EPS of –$.20 and Revenue of $104.48M, with an expected quarterly revenue increase of 6%.

$NKLA – Nikole Corporation manufactures electric vehicles and offers battery-electric and hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles. They have an Expected EPS of -$.33 and Revenue of $.06M.

$FSLR – First Solar designs and manufactures solar modules with a semiconductor film that can keep these products at a low cost. First, Solar wants to reduce the cost of Solar to combat and become a substitute for traditional energy sources. Expected EPS of $1.31 and Revenue of $713.59, with expected quarterly revenue to decrease -49%.

$DELL – Dell technology provides information technology solutions, and their operating segments consist of Client Solutions, Enterprise Solutions, and Dell Software group. Dell sells desktops to commercial and retail clients and data storage for clients. Expected EPS of $2.35 and Revenue of $23.99B, with expected quarterly revenue to remain the same.

Friday, February 26, 2021

Before Market Open

$DKNG – DraftKings is a direct competitor to Penn Gaming, and we have kept a strong focus on Penn. DraftKings promotes an exclusively online sports book/casino, and they have seen extended user growth over the last six months. Expected EPS of -$.55 and Revenue of $229.70M.

MARKET LAST WEEK (2/16 – 2/19)

MONDAY (2/16)

Image result for facebook logo

Mark Zuckerberg at a security conference said the social-media platform is in between a newspaper and a telecommunications company in terms of responsibility for the content and should be regulated as such. With all the recent news about Twitter shutting down accounts, and censorship being an undertone in the news, Zuckerberg confirms the heavy responsibility they bear with the most extensive user base. Its users drive Facebook’s content, and therefore they should have the role of a telecommunications company, while on the other side, they are broadcasting user content. They lie in a difficult position where regulators on both sides are looking to increase Facebook rules and be responsible to everyone.

TUESDAY (2/17)

A massive cold front has moved across the continental United States, and there have been rolling blackouts in many of the Middle American states. The supply of crude oil has fallen, which has sent the US Crude oil prices above $60 a barrel. The cold has halted production, threatening to reduce gasoline and diesel supply throughout the country. Frigid weather is expected to remain throughout the middle of the week, and Covid-19 vaccinations have faced possible disruption. Some Covid-19 vaccines rely on extremely cold temperatures, which require electricity. Without it, the Covid-19 vaccine becomes useless, and this will cause lots of money wasted.

Beijing is exploring whether China can limit the export of rare earth materials to the US Department of Defense, crucial to manufacturing Lockheed Martin’s F-35 and other sophisticated weaponry. China controls about 80% of the global supply of these rare earth materials and can severely restrict the production of defense materials. Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon will be severely hurt by China limiting these rare Earth materials.

WEDNESDAY (2/18)

Image result for bitcoin logo

Bitcoin began a big rally Wednesday, eclipsing the $50K mark for the first time. Several companies such as Mastercard, Bank of New York, and Tesla started investing in Bitcoin. Tesla invested $1.5B in Bitcoin as an alternative cash position and began receiving Bitcoin payments for their cars. This is massive momentum for the cryptocurrency as more institutions develop trust in the alternative asset. MicroStrategy offered $900M of debt to develop a Bitcoin position, and Jack Dorsey from Square started taking Bitcoin as payment.

The Treasury yield increased by 1.3% after hitting a new high on Friday, while the 30-year gained eight basis points. With increased vaccinations and the economy beginning to restart, Janet Yellen, alongside Jerome Powell, wants to keep Nominal Yields low with such high debt levels in the marketplace.

THURSDAY (2/19)

Unemployment claims rose to 814K showing signs that the economy is beginning to worsen after continued positive trends over the last several weeks of decreasing unemployment claims. An upward claim of 55K from the week prior, Marianne Wanamaker, a labor economist from the University of Tennessee, is quoted saying, “Things are not as stalled as they were in January, but we don’t have any momentum.”

In light of the GameStop stock saga craziness, several key players will have a hearing on Capitol Hill. Vlad Tenev Robinhood CEO, Melvin Capital Gabe Plotkin, Reddit Steve Huffman, and Citadel’s Kenneth Griffin and Keith Gill. Lawmakers will get their chance to ask the executives in a hearing focused on “short-selling, online trading platforms, gamification, and their impact on capital markets and retail investors.” Several House Committee members on Financial services worked tentatively to expose any fraudulent acts that developed from the GameStop stock price boom.

FRIDAY (2/20)

This week may have felt like a month for many residents in Texas. With the large snowstorm that covered the state and left many without working utilities, the situation was dire for some. Although Texas was able to restore electricity services to most of the state Friday morning, with Federal aid, government officials are hoping to safely treat water soon as well. This would be a massive stride to restoring many Texan’s safe drinking water, as damaged pipes have led to “boil water” advisories across the state.

    Another area that may be expecting a federal aid boost soon is the EV sector. New legislation proposed would grant companies such as GM and Tesla another round of federal tax credits. With new EVs being unveiled by the manufacturer from foreign competitors such as Audi, BMW, and Polestar, access to federal tax incentives could help Tesla and GM continue to lead the American EV market. While not entirely waiting to see if the new bill would pass, Tesla lowered its pricing system on its base model cars in hopes of encouraging those who may have been on the fence about their decision to buy a new Tesla or not. The EU is pushing heavily to transition to emission-free vehicles; we will have to wait and see if the US will join them in creating aggressive incentives and tax rebates to expand interest in switching from conventional ICE vehicles.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK’S EARNINGS (2/16 – 2/19)

Tuesday (2/16)
(Before Market Open)

 

$PLTR – Planatir Technologies

Palantir Technologies is a data-driven company that provides the best user experience by building platforms to integrate, manage, and secure data. Palantir’s business has grown significantly throughout 2020, with Stay-At-Home orders and businesses needing to have data packaged in one place.

  • Revenue growth of 47% in 2020, to $1.09B

  • Q4 Revenue increased by 40% to $322M

  • 17% Adjusted operating margin

  • 21 deals signed in Q4, each worth $5M

  • Palantir generated $610M from Government customers, which totaled 56% of revenue

  • 77% of Revenue Growth derived from Government contracts

  • 2019 Customer Concentration was 67% of revenue, and decreased to 61% in 2020

Takeaway:

Palantir is showing extremely healthy earnings, and this should continue with the growth of Data and demand for places to store and use this data in one place.

 

$CVS –  CVS Health

CVS Health had experienced an extraordinary year amid the Global Pandemic with their healthcare services, pharmaceutical services, and cosmetic business bolstering.

  • 2020 Total Revenue increased to $268M, up 4.6% YoY

  • 2020 EPS of $7.50 and Q4 $1.30

  • Full Year Cash Flow from operation of $15.9B

  • 4.6% revenue growth for Q4 YoY

  • Operating income increased 16% YoY

Takeaway:

CVS has steadily increased sales throughout 2020, and every business segment has grown YoY. We will continue to watch for news with CVS on implementing the Covid-19 vaccine and the profits they derive from it.

 

$AN –  Autonation

Autonation is the world’s largest car dealer, and their earnings will provide useful insight into consumer disposable income.

  • Q4 Revenue of $5.8B an increase of 5%

  • Gross Profit totaled $984M, an increase of 11% YoY

  • Operating income $309.4M increase 31% YoY

  • EPS of $1.73, down -1% YoY

  • Q4 Common Stock repurchased 4.7M for a purchase price of $302M

Takeaway:

These earnings show that consumers are spending their disposable income, and with interest rates being at an all-time low, consumers are willing to take out loans right now.

 

$ECL – Ecolab

Ecolab is a leader in sanitization for the hospitality and healthcare industry.

  • Q4 earnings show massive improvements in QoQ from Q3

  • Sales were down -6% YoY, $3.06B Sales for Q$

  • Diluted EPS from operations $1.04, -23% YoY

  • Operating Income $416M, -20% YoY

  • Cash Flow from operations of $650M and $523M FCF

Takeaway:

Ecolab shows the signs of an economy rebounding while still facing some harsh winter conditions, with restaurants beginning to re-open.

Wednesday (2/17)

(Before Market Open)

$SHOP – Shopify

Shopify is a cloud-based platform that has thrived throughout the pandemic, with consumers purchasing more goods online than ever before.

  • Q4 Revenue Growth of 94% YoY, Total Revenue was $977M

  • Full-Year 2020 Revenue Growth of 86%

  • Gross Merchandise Volume exceeded $41B for Q4 and $120B for 2020

  • Subscription Solutions revenue was $280M, up 53% YoY

  • Monthly Recurring Revenue was $82.6M

Takeaway:

Shopify has continued to grow massively with the unprecedented growth of online sales, and the demand for users to track their packages minute by minute has increased significantly.

 

$HLT – Hilton

Hilton is one of the largest hotel chains globally, and Covid-19 has stunted hotel use and caused massive losses across the board.

  • Diluted EPS was -$.80 for Q4 and -$2.56 for 2020

  • Net loss was $225M for Q4 and $720M for 2020

  • Revenue for 2020 $1.6B, and Q4 of $384M

  • Issued $1.9B in Senior Notes in Decembers

Takeaway:

These earnings show how hard Covid-19 is still hitting the hospitality industry as Hilton is losing hundreds of millions of dollars throughout 2020.

 

$TSEM –  Tower

Tower produces analog semiconductor chips that are growing in demand with the increased need for data storage and growth of Electric Vehicles that require these chips.

  • Q4 Revenue of $345M, 11% Growth QoQ, and 13% Growth YoY

  • Organic revenue growth of 20% QoQ and 17% YoY

  • Revenue for 2020 of $1.26B, Operating Profit for Q4 $33M

  • EBITDA for Q4 was $96M; Cash Flow was $73M

Takeaway:

Demand for the semiconductor industry is at an all-time high, and Tower Semiconductor supplies that demand. Looking forward, Tower will need to increase its production capacity to provide this supply for the market.

(After Market Close)

$TWLO – Twilio 

A cloud-based communication platform that allows developers to make and receive text messages, phone calls, and web service APIs. Twilio is experiencing growth to unprecedented levels, with companies using their platform on a more frequent basis.

  • Q4 revenue of $548.1m, YoY Growth 65%

  • Full-year revenue of $1.76B, 55% YoY

  • Loss from operations of $185.3M for Q4, in comparison to $93.8M in 2019

  • EPS of $.04 in Q4, and a net loss of -$3.35 

  • Loss from operations of $429M for 2020, compared to $369.8M for 2019

Takeaway:

Twilio is growing revenue, while at the same time increasing costs. We will have to continue to look into their Earnings to see if they can decrease expenses moving forward.

$BIDU- Baidu 

Baidu is a leading AI company from China that works on AI cloud solutions, produced a strong Q4 earnings report. With the growth in demand for AI involvement, from cloud work to autonomous driving, Baidu stands to continue to benefit.

Baidu reported the following

  • Baidu Core non-marketing revenue grew 52% year over year in Q4

  • Baidu AI cloud differentiating with AI solutions grew 67%year over year in Q4

  • Baidu’s revenue reached US$16.4 billion

Takeaway:

Technology is becoming more integrated into everyday life with every passing month. With Bixby or Siri in most phones, computer chips in cars, and even smart light bulbs, for the most part, our society is pushing towards autonomy through “smart” devices for convenience. That will require increased AI involvement and production, which may provide Baidu with the avenue to continue to thrive.

Thursday (2/18)

(Before Market Open)

$WMT – Walmart

Walmart is a retail giant, with big box stores carrying items ranging from camping gear to fresh produce, aiming to be close to a one-stop-shop for all customers’ needs.

While failing to reach most analysts’ expectations for Q4 earnings, they still produced a solid Q4.

Walmart reported the following:

  • adjusted earnings came out at $1.39 per share, $1.51 expected

  • Raising wages at/above $15 an hour average

  • Online sales rose 69% in the quarter

  • Sales at US stores increased 8.6%

Takeaways:

Walmart always benefits during the holiday season with their large selection of products that end up shopping lists, from food to electronics. While the stimulus bill provided consumers with a small boost in purchasing power. Moving into the new quarter, growth may not expand as much as last year but can be expected to remain consistent as demand for household items is not likely to reduce.

 

$WM – Waste Management

One of North America’s largest waste disposal companies, with arguably the most recognizable logo in their sector. Everyone benefits from their services, which explains how when most companies struggled during the pandemic they were able to continue producing similar financial reports as the previous year.

They reported the following

  • in the fourth quarter of 2020, revenue increased $185 million in the Company’s collection and disposal business

  • Collection and disposal yield was 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019

  • For the full year, total Company volumes declined 4.5% in 2020 compared to growth of 2.3% in 2019

Takeaways:

With a relatively flat 2020 vs 2019 Waste management can expect to recover some of the minor losses experienced with the majority of business reopening. Which can add volume back to their revenue streams, that may have been lost during the extended quarantine lockdowns.

 

$MAR – Marriott

One of largest and most recognizable hotel brands across the globe, released a weak Q4 earnings report, but as with the entire hospitality sector it was expected.

Marriott reported the following

  • Fourth quarter adjusted diluted EPS totaled $0.12, compared to fourth quarter 2019 adjusted diluted EPS of $1.51

  • Fourth quarter reported net loss totaled $164 million

  • Adjusted EBITDA totaled $317 million in the 2020 fourth quarter, compared to fourth quarter 2019 adjusted EBITDA of $901 million

  • The company added nearly 63,000 rooms globally during 2020, including more than

  • 28,000 rooms in international markets and a total of roughly 8,100 conversion rooms

Takeaways:

Everyone expected brands such as Marriott to continue to struggle as tourism was way down. They reported large losses compared to 2019, but with the vaccine rollout underway the hospitality sector is hoping to get a boost in business again by the end of the year.

(After Market Close)

$Roku – Roku  

Now a days it seems impossible to find smart TVs that are not Roku compatible. As a company they provide streaming services for TV shows, movies and sports across all of their compatible products, which included 38% of the sold smart TV’s in 2020.

Roku reported the following

  •  Total net revenue grew 58% YoY to $1,778 million

  • Platform revenue increased 71% YoY to $1,268 million

  • Gross profit was up 63% YoY to $808 million

  • Streaming hours increased by 20.9 billion hours YoY to a record 58.7 billion

  • In 2020, 38% of all smart TVs sold in the U.S. were Roku TV models

Takeaways:

It should come as no surprise more people were streaming entertainment more during 2019, with everyone confined to their homes during the pandemic, streams were a popular choice to pass the time. Now that more people are leaving their homes again, it will be interesting to see how they adjust and maintain part if not all of those increased streaming hours moving forward.

$AMAT – Applied materials

A leader in their sector, they produce  engineering solutions for the semiconductor, flat panel display and solar photovoltaic (PV) industries. With solar energy becoming more and more popular, their products are vital in producing efficient panels.

AMAT reported the following.

  • Record quarterly revenue of $5.16 billion, up 24 percent year over year

  • Quarterly GAAP EPS of $1.22 and record non-GAAP EPS of $1.39, up 27 percent and 42 percent year over year

  • Generated $1.42 billion in cash from operations

  • paid dividends of $201 million to shareholders

  • the company recorded gross margin of 45.5 percent,operating income of $1.28 billion or 24.9 percent of net sales for Q1

Takeaways:

Although they may not be the first tech company that comes to mind when compared to those in FAANG, applied materials is for all intents and purposes a tech engineering company. Providing the hardware that powers race car sensors to solar panels, they are positioned to continue to grow as demand for their products is not expected to slow down at all. Everyday items including cars, continue to become more advanced and companies will continue to require hardware that can keep up, so for 2021 we can watch to see just how high their ceiling can be.

$DBX – Dropbox

For all of us who have been students or worked in an office, chances are, you have used dropbox at one point. A leader in digital file storage and cloud solutions they produced a strong Q4 to close out their fiscal year.

Dropbox reported the following

  •  Total revenue was $504.1 million, an increase of 13% from the same period last year

  • Fourth Quarter Revenue of $504.1 Million

  • Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities of $170.7 Millionand Free Cash Flow of $158.4 Million

  • Paying users ended at 15.48 million, as compared to 14.31 million for the same period last year. Average revenue per paying user was $130.17, as compared to $125.00 for the same period last year

  • Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments ended at $1.121 billion.

Takeaways:

With remote work becoming a new normal in our workforce, digital file storage and transfers become paramount in maintaining cohesion between company departments when everyone is no longer in the same building. As companies decide remote work can continue to be a viable solution, Dropbox may continue to show the same revenue growth in 2021 as it did in 2020.

#16 $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Package

Friday, February 12th Closing Price

TABLE OF CONTENTS
  1. MERCHANDISE
  2. DISCORD RECAP
  3. STOCKS ON OUR RADAR
  4. MONDAY
  5. TUESDAY
  6. WEDNESDAY
  7. THURSDAY
  8. FRIDAY
  9. LAST WEEK’S EARNINGS
  10. UPCOMING EARNINGS

“Remember that failure is an event, not a person.” – Zig Ziglar

JOIN OUR DISCORD

DISCORD RECAP (2/8 – 2/12)

Last week, a mixed week with the team, had a 65% win rate with a 40% expected return.

Our biggest losses came from Tesla, Citibank, DoorDash, and Apple.

Our biggest winners came from Paypal, Aphria, and Cronos

EDUCATIONAL LEARNING SEGMENT

Welcome, change. Embrace change. Seek change.

 

STOCKS ON OUR RADAR (2/16- 2/19)

$LAZR 

Luminar Technologies, Inc. operates as a vehicle sensor and software company for passenger vehicles and trucks. The company operates in two segments, Autonomy Solutions and Other Component Sales. The Autonomy Solutions segment designs, manufactures, and sells lidar sensors, and related perception and autonomy software solutions for original equipment manufacturers in the automobile, commercial vehicle, robo-taxi, and other related industries. The Other Component Sales segment engages in the designing, testing, and consulting of non-standard integrated circuits for government agencies and defense contractors. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

With all the hype surrounding the car sales industry and the electric vehicle industry, we believe that LAZR one way or the other will benefit from the positive momentum.

Stock is currently trading at around $37.78 (as of Friday February 12th, 2021 close)

We believe shares will begin to trade higher to around low $40or high $47 in the near future.

Join our discord to see how we trade this monster

MARKET LAST WEEK (2/1 – 2/5)

MONDAY (2/8)

Tesla has managed to make history and headlines yet again. Tesla disclosed that they had invested $1.5 Billion in popular cryptocurrency Bitcoin. Tesla announced that they would be accepting Bitcoin as payment in the near future. As they stated in their 10-K filing, they may or may not liquidate said bitcoin upon receipt of payment. This change represents a significant backing for the currency and fuels rumors of major institutions gravitating towards Bitcoin acceptance. News of Tesla’s purchase sent Bitcoin price skyrocketing up 20% past the $42,000 market and had Tesla shares up 3% pre-market.

TUESDAY (2/9)

The Senate voted on Tuesday to proceed with the second impeachment of Donald Trump, after what was a long day of arguing over whether it was constitutional to try the former president. All 50 Democrats and 6 Republicans decided to proceed with the impeachment that began on Wednesday. Sixty-seven votes would be needed to convict Trump, and only a few Republicans have committed to saying they would likely vote guilty.

Following two crazy weeks of trading and proving that their platform has some serious firepower, Reddit has doubled its valuation to $6B with a $250M funding round. The CEO Steve Huffman said the company plans to use the new funding to invest in video, advertising, and consumer products. They are looking to enter the international markets, which can be a massive move to grow their user base to all-time high levels.

WEDNESDAY (2/10)

Facebook is building their audio-chat product to rival the famous new app Clubhouse. Clubhouse is an invitation-only audio-chat social networking app launched in 2020 by software developers Alpha Exploration Co. They are abuzz with good news after their $100 million valuationvaluations last year was demolished by a $1 Billion valuation due in part to $100 millionin fundraising in January. Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s Chief Executive Officer, hosted a room in Clubhouse this past Sunday to discuss virtual reality’s merits and future. If this happens, this will be the latest move by Facebook to copy a competitor’s popular feature. They successfully copied Instagram’s stories and reels feature and created Facebook rRooms in an attempt to appeal to Zoom’s customer base. The legal hoops they’ll need to jump through to createmake their version have have not beenyet to be  addressed yet.

THURSDAY (2/11)

AstraZeneca recently announced that they are fixing problems with manufacturing its Covid-19 vaccine and expects to double monthly production to 200M doses. AstraZeneca and Oxford University are working to create new versions of the vaccine to combat the latest variants of Covid-19 from South Africa and Brazil.

Labor Reports came out, and they are reporting a decline in unemployment claims from the beginning January peak. This sign shows employers are increasing payroll, and states have begun to open again. Early January unemployment claims exceeded 900k, and the recent report showed a decrease to 730K, while still high, this is a positive sign. This recent dropoff is credited to the remaining more states that were closed, beginning the process to re-open and bounce back. Some legislatures believe that the unemployment numbers are inflated and that some people claim unemployment while going backreturning to their job.

FRIDAY (2/12)

After a long week, the Senate impeachment trial entered its last phases, with senators expected to vote Saturday evening. With several senators meeting with Trump’s defense team, such as Cruz and Graham, it does not appear likely the Democrats will receive enough bipartisan support to convict former president Trump.

In EV news, investors favorite or most hated brand, depending on your views, Tesla. Recently announced the expected battery size for their upcoming EV semi-truck. WhileAt the same time, promising models with ranges between 300 to 500 miles per charge, the batteries revealed by Elon Musk were surprisingly smaller than many expected. A model S contains a 100Kwhbattery pack, while the 300-mile range semis are expected to have 500Kwh battery packs. At the same time, they face criticism for electric semi-trucks’ practicality, with the Federal government encouraging carmakers to push EVs. Tesla stands to lead the market in a new direction once again, and with the first deliveries set to take place this year, we can expect Tesla to continue to rise in the market.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK’S EARNINGS (2/1 – 2/5)

Monday (2/8) 
(After Market Close)

Chegg

Chegg had their earnings announcement Monday, where they announced that they outperformed every metric and expectation for the past year and raised their guidance for 2021 as well. The pandemic’s effects increased the need for remote learning and subsequently the demand for Chegg services.

Chegg reported the following:

  • 4.4 Million new Chegg Subscribers, up 74% YoY

  • $206 Million in revenue, up 64% YoY

  • 67% YoY growth for 2020

  • 72% gross margin

  • Acquired Mathway

Takeaways:

Chegg’s leadership lauded 2020 as their best year as a company by any metric exceeding their expectations for revenuerevenue expectations, adjusted EBITDA, and all other keycritical operating metrics. Chegg also scores highest in unaided awareness by college students, with 87% having heard of a Chegg service. 92% of their customers believe Chegg has helped them get better grades. As a software company built to scale online, they handled the pandemic flawlessly. With their stellar current standing/ positioning, we have no reason to expect less than stellar growth.

KKR & Co Inc.,

a global leading investment firm that manages multiple investment classes, reported their earnings, and the results were undoubtedly strong and bode well for their future.

KKR & Co Inc reported the following:

  • $2.01 Billion in revenue

  • $1.47 Billion in net income (GAAP)

  • 15% increase in earnings YoY

  • Dividend earnings (DE) of $0.49 vs. project $0.41

  • Private equity portfolio up 32%

Takeaways:

KKR & Co announced a profit during their fourth-quarter earnings call that more than doubled their previous year’s fourth-quarter earnings per share. Company revenue grew just shy of 90%, which is phenomenal in and of itself. Real estate, infrastructure, and leveraged credit funds were all profitable during the quarter, boding well for KKR & Co Inc’s future.

Simon Property Group reported their earnings after-market Monday. Simon Property Group is among those companies adversely impacted by the pandemic. They narrowly missed fourth-quarter revenue and EPS projections. Despite this, share value rose nearly 4% following their earnings call.

Simon Property Group

SPG reported their earnings after-market Monday. Simon Property Group is among those companies adversely impacted by the pandemic. They narrowly missed fourth-quarter revenue and EPS projections. Despite this, share value rose nearly 4% following their earnings call.

SPG reported the following:

  • $1.13 Billion in revenue, down 24.2% YoY

  • Q4 EPS OF $0.86

  • $2.3 Billion in operating cash flow

  • An acquired majority stake in Taubman Realty Group

Takeaways:

Despite the challenging year due to the pandemic, Simon Property Group is positioned to do well long term. Without a fundamental shift in the way consumers purchase, they will weather the storm pandemic or otherwise. Foot traffic in retail stores has returned and higher than pre-pandemic levels in some areas. Simon Property Group projects an EPS of $4.60-$4.85 with analysts projections at $3.90. The common consensus being 2021 will be a positive year of growth for SPG.

Tuesday (2/9)
(Before Market Open)

Canopy Growth Corporation

Canopy Growth Corporation had their earnings call Tuesday morning that was exciting. Canopy outlined a strategy and is executing it in perfect accordance. They regained the leading market share for the Canadian recreational market and have lured several first-time clients in their practical marketing approaches, including adding Martha Stewart CBD gummies to improve customer reach.

CGC reported the following:

  • Record quarter revenue of $153 million, 23% growth YoY

  • Net revenue $99 million

  • $135 million free cash flow

  • R&D expenses of $55 million

Takeaways:

Canopy Growth Corporation is building strong momentum in developing a winning record in its core markets. They have also seen tangible improvements in their commercial and supply chain. Canopy is also accelerating its U.S growth strategy because they expect significant cannabis reform with the new administration. Canopy is firmly on the path of profitability, with record numbers coming in and their R&D numbers showing their commitment to growth.

S & P Global

S & P Global reported their earnings, and all indicators showcase the company in a flattering light. Last year was a culmination of the framework of their executive strategy. This development was seen when they reported that all four of their business contributed to its overall revenue growth.

SPGI reported the following:

  • $7.4 Billion organic revenue, 10% growth

  • 23% adjusted diluted EPS

  • $3.3 Billion in free cash flow

  • $1.8 Billion in share repurchase and dividends

  • Operating profit up 18%

Takeaways: 

S & P Global had a phenomenal year and quarter. Their business grew in step with operating margin, which is a tall order. They believe they can carry this forward as their positive outlook is reflected in their adjusted guidance for 2021. Despite this, they neglected to issue full-year guidance due to their upcoming merger with HIS Markit. Although it occurs in the second half of the year, they find it difficult to project the full impact.

Fidelity

Fidelity had a great year and quarter, as we heard in their earnings calls. They beat expectations in every way, although some questions are still left after their report. Fidelity reported that all three business segments ended the year with record annual sales, an impressive feat objectively but even more so with the pandemic in mind.

Fidelity reported the following:

  • $12.6 Billion in revenue

  • $3.5 Billion in new sales for banking solutions

  • Adjusted EPS of $1.62

  • Over $3 Billion in free cash flow, 50% increase YoY

Takeaways:

Fidelity has lived up to investors’ expectations and believes they will do so again, as seen in their guidance for 2021. Their accelerating revenue growth and expanded margins have issued guidance and have received upgraded numbers that leadership believes make them an attractive long-term value for shareholders.

(After Market Close)

Twitter

$TWTR – Twitter announced Q4 and full-year results that show extremely healthy signs for the company moving forward. Twitter has faced severe backlash and lots of support over the last tumultuous month.

  • YoY Total Revenue Growth of 28%$1.29B

  • Average Monetizable Daily Active Usage (mDAU) Growth of 27% to 192M in Q4

  • 2020 revenue $3.72B, an increase of 7% YoY

  • 2020 Costs and expenses totaled $3.69B – an increase of19%

  • Resulted in operating income of $27M – 1% operating margin

  • Net loss of $1.14B, net margin of -31%, and Diluted EPS -$1.44

Twitter released strong earnings and heavy user growth on their platform, a healthy sign for their platform moving forward. Looking forward, we need to see Twitter be able to cut its costs and expenses to become more profitable. In Q4 of 2020, Twitter gained 40 million users compared to the previous year.

Cisco

$CSCO – Cisco offers business products and solutions to Small and Large Businesses and is a service provider to companies worldwide. With extended stay-at-home orders, offices becoming more virtual, Cisco’s services are in high demand.

  • Total product order growth of 1%

  • Dividend increased by 3%

  • Q2 Revenues of $12B – no change YoY

  • GAAP EPS of $.60, decreased -12%

  • Net Income of $2.5B- decreased by 12%

Cisco sees growth in almost all business segments, especially in their web-scale business. Their Webex portfolio has serious revenue strength with stay-at-home orders, and Cisco achieved $3.6B in software revenue with 76% sold as a subscription. They have an ideal base moving forward, and revenue should grow steadily.

Lyft

$LYFT – Lyft, a ride-sharing company, has been heavily affected by the Global Pandemic, and their earnings have reflected that. Lyft has had to develop creative ways to eliminate extra costs and grow its revenue in any way possible.

  • Lyft reported Q4 revenue of $569.9M – compared to $1,071M in Q4 2019 (-44% YoY)

  • Quarterly revenue increase of 14% from $499.7M in Q3

  • Net Loss for Q4 was $458.2M compared to a net loss of $356M in Q4 2019

  • Adjusted Net loss for Q4 2020 was $185.3M compared to $121.4M Q4 2019

  • Revenue of $2.4B versus $3.6B in 2019

  • Net loss of $1.8B versus a net loss of $2.6B in 2019

  • Revenue per Active Rider increased by 19% in 2020

Lyft successfully cut an extraordinary amount of costs and expenses, so their net loss was a lot less harsh than others. Moving forward, Lyft should have a strong revenue bounce back after the country becomes vaccinated from Covid-19.

General Motors

$GM – General Motors is continuously looking to innovate and push the envelope with every new car model they release. They are heavily focused on taking over the Electric Vehicle industry and providing a lot of competition to other Electric Vehicle companies.

  • Full-yearThe full-year income of $6.4B and EBIT adjusted of $9.7B

  • EPS diluted of $4.33 and adjusted of $4.90

  • Full-year EBIT adjusted margin of 7.9%

  • Q4 EPS of $1.93 and EPS Diluted Adj of $1.93

  • Q4 Income of $2.8B and EBIT of $3.7M

  • Q4 Adj Margin of 9.9%

  • Q4 Operating Cash Flow of $5.2B and FCF of $3.4B

General Motors posted substantial revenues throughout the year even when Disposable Income is meager, and no one is driving their car. This is a positive sign moving forward that people are choosing GM for their vehicle even when they have low disposable income.

Wednesday (2/2)

(Before Market Open)

UAA

UAA, home to elite athletes across multiple sports, but perhaps none more recognizable than Tom Brady and Steph Curry. For Q4, they produced a reliable report, but they did experience some setbacks. Like most retailers, they continue to see an increase in e-commerce sales but failed to maintain revenue at previous levels, falling short 3% overall.

UAA reported the following

  • Wholesale revenue decreased 12% to $662 million, and direct-to-consumer revenue increased 11% to $655 million, driven by 25% growth in eCommerce.

  • North America revenue fell 6% to $924 million, and international revenue increased 7% to $448 million.

  • Apparel revenue decreased 4% to $931 million.

  • Footwear revenue declined 7% to $241 million.

  • Accessories revenue increased 32% to $145 million.

Takeaways:

Under Armour is a staple in sportswear, with household star power wearing their products. Although given the decrease of in-store shopping, and the continued expansions of online sales, there is a shift in their revenue streams. Their earnings should come as no surprise to those following the retail sector since last summer. We would not be surprised if they continue to expand their online presence and push more towards direct to consumer, a strategy Nike inc. has been adopting.

(After Market Close)

Uber

Uber showed some progress in Q4 from Q3, but that did not prevent the final year revenue from continuing to bleed compared to the previous year. When most of the world stopped moving around as much to preventavoid the spread of COVID-19, a yearly decrease in ride-sharing revenue was expected. While ride-sharing bookings took a hit, they succeeded in expanding their food delivery services comparatively, with most indoor dining transitioning to food delivery.

UBER reported the following.

  • Delivery Gross Bookings grew 130% YoY.

  • Gross Bookings grew 16% quarter-over-quarter

  • Revenue of $3.2 billion grew 13% quarter-over-quarter (down 16% year-over-year)

  • Unrestricted cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments were $6.8 billion at the end of the fourth quarter.

  • Delivery Revenue grew 19% QoQ and 224% YoY while Mobility Revenue increased 8% QoQ and declined 52% YoY.

Takeaways:
With the numbers Uber reported, they showed an ability to adjust and switch focus from primarily ride sharing to food delivery. With a 52% rideshare revenue decrease compared to the previous year, it was vital to keep them from becoming another pandemic victim. Suppose they can continue to build their Uber Eats brand and regain some of the lost rideshare business. In that case, they will be in substantially better financial standing moving into the later quarters of the fiscal year. With mass vaccinations on the horizon, travel and ride-sharing may recover some of their lost customers.

Thursday (2/3)

(Before Market Open)

Pepsi

Pepsi produced a Q4 report that beat analysts’ expectations, with shares earning 1.38% more than predicted. While most known for their soft drinks that compete with the Coca-Cola brand, Pepsi also includes Quaker oats and Frito Lay chips under their umbrella. Together, Pepsi grew their revenue again in Q4, keeping up with the fiscal year’s previous three earnings reports.

Pepsi reported the following.

  • Net revenue growth Q4 8.8%

  • Net revenue growth YoY 4.8%

  • Frito-Lay North America operating profit decreased 4%,

  • Quaker Foods North America operating profit grew 17%

  • PepsiCo Beverages North America operating profit rose 19%

Takeaways: 

Pepsi shares were down 7.1% during the fiscal year, but they exceeded expectations this quarter. With revenue and profit increasing as a whole, we can look to Pepsi to regain some of its lost market value in the new year. With the wide variety of staples in kitchen pantries, Pepsi can continue to see theirits revenue expansion and perhaps continue to marginalize any losses from the Frito lay brand losses.

(After Market Close)

Disney

Disney produced a relatively positive 2021 Q1 earnings call given the media giant’s exposure to the pandemic with park closures. Disney+ has continued its hot streak adding more subscribers to its base and producing well-received shows such as The Mandalorian and WandaVision. With more exclusive content on the horizon, Disney hopes to compete with Netflix in the market space.

Disney reported the following.

  • Disney plus subscribers rose to $94.9M.

  • Reported revenue was $16.25B vs. $15.92B expected and $20.86B YoY

  • Disney plus to be raised by $1 starting in March, to 7.99%

  • Disney parks reported a loss of 119M vs. 530M expected

Takeaways:

Disney may not have the market base in subscribers to match Netflix yet, but are hoping to continue drawing in new customers with large amounts of original and exclusive content. With the parks losing less revenue than expected and proper reopenings scheduled to begin for the rest of the Disney parks, we can look forward to a strong rebound year for the happiest corporation on earth.

Kraft Heinz Company: 

Kraft Heinz company finished 2020 strong with numbers exceeding expected growth in Q4. The company is one that benefited from the pandemic, with increased consumer demand for KHC food products.

  • 2020 Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.80 (surpassed the expectation of$0.74 

  • BottomThe bottom line increased 11.1% YoY.

  • Net sales increased 6.2% YoY.

Takeaways:

Looking forward, KHC expects to continue to exceed earnings expectations. With the pandemic reaching 2021, consumer demand remains higher than usual, resulting in better sales. Additionally, the company signed an agreement to sell its nuts business to Hormel Foods Corporation HRL, which is expected to conclude in mid-2021. This cash transaction is worth $3.35 billion, another significant step for Kraft Heinz Company.

Kingston Resources Limited:

2020 was a big year for Kingston Resources, listed as “an ASX listed exploration and development company advancing the 3.6Moz Misma Gold Project in PNG and the Livingstone Gold Project in Australia.”

Their capital structure is as follows:

  • Share Price – US$0.20 

  • Issued Shares – 282M 

  • Market Cap – US$55.8M 

  • Enterprise Value – US$43M 

  • Cash (as of 31 Dec 2020) – US$12.9M

Pre-Tax Net Present Value of the Misma Gold Project:

  • $822M and 33% IRR at US$1,600/oz gold price

Takeaways: 

Kingston Resources believes it is “positioned for growth in 2021 after delivering [Pre-Feasibility Study on 3.6M oz Misma Gold Project, raising $13M and appointing respected industry leader Mick Wilkes as chairman.” They hope to become a significant new gold producer in the Asia-Pacific Region and continue their Australian efforts.

UPCOMING WEEK 2/15 – 02/19

EARNINGS

Tuesday, February 9, 2021

Before Market Open

$PLTR – Palantir creates unique software to help companies store their data isin safe and accessible places. It allows organizations to have their data stored on one platform and bring the data to the right places. Palantir builds platforms to integrate, manage, and secure data for fully interactive human-driven, machine-assisted analysis. Expected $EPS of $.05 and Revenue of $300M.

$CVS– CVS is a one-stop solution for pharmaceutical needs, retail, and hospitality goods. Recently, CVS has been able to perform Covid-19 testing through their drive-through pharmacy, and they offer several goods to combat Covid-19. They have had lots of success throughout Covid-19 by offering PPE products and various other cleaning solutions. Expected EPS of $1.49 and Revenue of $68.67B, with expected quarterly revenue to increase by 2.7%.

$AN – AutoNation is America’s Largest Automotive Retailer, Autonation provides almost all car brands, and they offer a diverse range of automotive repair and maintenance services. They seek to deliver a consistently superior customer experience with a large selection of inventory, transparent sales and service processes, and competitive pricing. Looking into Autonation can provide us with an insight into Durable Goods being purchased and insight into how the economy is recovering from Covid-19. Expected EPS of $2.40 and Revenue of $5.61B, with expected quarterly revenue to increase by 1.1%.

$ECL – Ecolab is a leader in cleaning, sanitizing, food safety, and infection control products and services. Ecolab delivers comprehensive services to the foodservice and hospitality markets. An increase in revenue may show that the hospitality industry is bouncing back, and economies are beginning to re-open. Expected EPS of $1.23 and Revenue of $3.10B, with expected quarterly revenue to decrease by -19%.

Wednesday, February 10th, 2021

Before Market Open

$SHOP – Shopify is a cloud-based commerce platform, they provide merchants with a platform to design, set up, and manage their stores through Web, mobile, social media, and pop-up shops. They offer a full end to the end product, providing live updates from the moment they ship to the product being delivered. Expected EPS of $2.17 and Revenue of $906.82M, with expected quarterly revenue to increase by 80%.

$HLT –  Hilton Worldwide offers a hospitality service; they are engaged in the ownership, leasing, management, development, and franchising of hotels and resorts. They offer a variety of hotels, from ultra-luxury to moderately priced, and a wide array of consumers can stay at their hotels. Looking into Hilton can indicate how the economy is recovering and what hospitality can look for in the next few quarters. Expected EPS of $.04 and Revenue of $1.06B, with expected quarterly revenue to decrease by -55%.

$TSEM –  Tower Semiconductor is a company of interest due to the high demand for Semiconductors, and this can help us have predictions looking forward. Expected EPS of $.22 and Revenue of $340M, and a quarterly revenue increase of 11.2%.

After Market Close

$TWLO –  Twilio is a cloud communication platform that allows developers to build, scale, and operate real-time communications within software applications. ItsIts Programmable Communications Cloud software enables developers to embed voice, messaging, video, and authentication capabilities. They have an expected EPS of -$.01and Revenue of $454.64M, with an expected quarterly revenue increase of 37%.

$BIDU – Baidu is a Chinese-language Internet search provider and is based in Beijing, the People’s Republic of China. The company offers a Chinese language search platform and conducts its operations principally through Baidu Online Network. Expected EPS of $3.06 and Revenue of $4.46B, with an expected quarterly revenue increase of 7.5%.

Thursday, February 11th, 2021

Before Market Open

$WMT – Walmart is of the world’s largest retailers that offer superstores and discount grocery stores. Recently, Walmart has boosted their online, delivery, and pickup sales, which has boosted revenue. Expected EPS of $1.59 and Revenue of $146.42B, with an expected quarterly revenue increase of 3.4%.

$WM – Waste Management is a garbage disposal solution company that serves municipal, commercial, and institutional customers in the United States and Canada. Being stuck at home has caused many people to have tons of waste; this is good for Waste Management as their business relies on trash. Expected EPS of $1.07 and Revenue of $3.98B, and expected quarterly revenue increase of 3.5%.

$MAR – Marriott is the world’s largest hotel company that owns and operates resorts and hotels worldwide. Much like Hilton, Marriot ownsholds a wide array of hotels that can serve a large group of consumers for many different price points. Expected EPS of $.10 and Revenue of $2.42B, with expected quarterly revenue decrease of -55%.

After Market Close

$ROKU – Roku is involved with one of the premier streaming platforms for providing entertainment to the television. Roku has several products, including (Roku 1-4), Streaming Stick, and accessories such as cables, remote controls, power adapters, and headphones. Expected EPS of $.03 and Revenue of $615.84M, with expected quarterly revenue to increase by 50%.

$AMAT – Applied Materials is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the market space. Applied Materials is the leader in engineering solutions to produce virtually every new chip and advanced display globally. Applied Materials offer diverse, flexible service solutions and increase equipment efficiency while lowering cost per wafer. Expected EPS of $1.31 and Revenue of $4.95B, with expected quarterly revenue to increase by 19%, and expected Annual Revenue to increase by 15%.

$DBX – Dropbox is a service company that offers a platform that enables users to store and share files, photos, videos, songs, and spreadsheets. Businesses have heavily used this service throughout the Global Pandemic, and revenue should reflect that. Expected EPS of $.28 and Revenue of $498.12M, with expected quarterly revenue to increase by 11.7%.

EVENTS & TALKS

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tuesday, February 23, 2021: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY DEC 9:00 AM EST

Wednesday, February 24, 2021: New Home Sales MoM JAN 10:00 AM EST
Thursday, February 25, 2021:     Pending Home Sales YoY JAN 10:00 AM EST
Friday, February 26, 2021: Personal Spending MoM JAN 8:30 AM EST

#3 Last Week of the Year: What to Expect

“Act as if what you do makes a difference. It does.” – William James

Thursday, December 24th Closing Price

TABLE OF CONTENTS
  1. STIMULUS SIGNED
  2. PELOTON ACQUISITION
  3. JACK MA AND ANTI-MONOPOLY PROBE
  4. CORONAVIRUS STRAIN
  5. REVIEW OF LAST WEEK’S EARNINGS
  6. UPCOMING EARNINGS
  7. MERCHANDISE
  8. EDUCATIONAL LEARNING SEGMENT
  9. VIDEO OF THE WEEK

MARKET LAST WEEK (12/21- 12/25)

Debt Loan GIF by Resistbot

STIMULUS SIGNED

Just a couple of days after Congress agreed to pass an $892 billion coronavirus relief bill, President Trump surprised many by strongly criticizing the bill and threatening not to sign it until Sunday night. President Trump lambasted the lengthy bill for its billions in foreign aid without focusing internally on the American people. His signature did two things for the US economy: it prevented a government shutdown on Tuesday, and it extends aid to the American people in coronavirus aid. The two key pandemic unemployment programs received their last payment this weekend. Still, due to the bill being signed on Sunday instead of Saturday, the payments could be delayed several weeks. 

The President cites too small of a direct payment in the form of a stimulus to citizens, referring to the proposed $600 stimulus as “ridiculous low. He instead proposed an increased stimulus of $2000 for individuals and $4000 for couples. 

Yesterday, President Trump ended up signing the bill as his club in Mar-a-Lago, with the stipulation that Congress consider implementing legislation to increase direct payments in the future. However, less than timely, the signing of this bill allows approximately 12 million benefit recipients to continue receiving benefits for another 11 weeks and signals an end in the Trump presidency’s latest point of contention.

PELOTON – RIDING MOMENTUM INTO THE NEW YEAR

Peloton, the American exercise equipment, and media company, have struck a deal to acquire Precor. Precor is an industry leader in exercise equipment manufacturing. This deal presents a unique opportunity for Peloton to continue to capitalize on the significant success they’ve had this year boosted by the pandemic. This deal is expected to close early in 2021 and cost $420 million but stands to return far more. Peloton has the great problem of struggling to meet their ever-growing demand for their orders. This, in conjunction with shipping delays due to the pandemic, has led to an increase in canceled orders by frustrated customers. Peloton’s stock had a meteoric ascent this year, up more than 500% on the year. A successful solution to their distribution issues will surely please their investors and pique the interest of many more.

JACK MA AND ANTI-MONOPOLY PROBE

It appears that Jack Ma would have far preferred a lump of coal this Christmas; instead, he received news that Chinese regulators were conducting an anti-monopoly probe into the Chinese monolith. This news led to a massive selloff for the E-Commerce company, with a 13% drop in share value on Christmas eve. This appears to be just the start of the implications from their recent woes, including halting the $37 Billion IPO of their subsidiary Ant Group. As of yesterday, the Zhejiang Provincial Administration for Market Regulation has concluded the probe into Alibaba, reporting that they cooperated with the investigation team promptly. Subsequently, Alibaba has announced a 67% increase in their share buyback program from $6 to USD 10 Billion over the next two years. This may be great timing considering the discount in share price, although the timing has led to speculation amongst investors. In demonstrating their confidence in their outlook, they may have provided a bit of good news. Whether this is reflected in the halting of their tumultuous stock price has yet to be seen. With Alibaba down 26% since its peak in late October, there are certainly several investors tuned in for an answer.

New Coronavirus Strain Induces Widespread Concern

Despite the FDA announcing emergency approval for immediate distribution of Pfizer and Moderna’s coronavirus vaccines, panic is still prevalent. A few new coronavirus strains have been detected in the UK, South Africa, Nigeria, and others in the past few weeks, raising questions about whether the vaccines carry the same macroeconomic implications as before. The effects of each strain are far-reaching. The strain in the UK, for example, does not appear to be more fatal, but it is reportedly 70% more transmittable, leading to dozens of countries banning travel from the United Kingdom. The Public Health Agency of Canada confirmed the first two North American cases in Ontario Saturday night. Japanese officials have announced that their borders will be closed from midnight tonight to January 31st after receiving seven positive results for the new coronavirus strain. BioNTech’s CEO has announced a “relatively high” chance the vaccine they created in conjunction with Pfizer will prove resistant to the new coronavirus vaccine. The importance of this statement’s accuracy cannot be overstated, and we can expect a significant public reaction to the conclusion one way or another.

LAST WEEK’S EARNINGS

Monday

HEICO

Heico Logo - LogoDix

Heico is a company that has seen large declines this year, which is to be expected from any company that is integrated into the airline industry. A pickup in global fleet travel is necessary for the company to continue to grow. It is important to see just how negatively affected the company has been since the pandemic began and how much it’s improved as lockdown restrictions are eased.

  • Net income of $314.0 million down from $327.9 million YoY.
  • FY Q4 net income of $62.3 million down from $85.7 million YoY.
  • Operating income was $376.6 million in FY 2020, compared to $457.1 million in FY 2019
  • Q4 Operating income of $89.1 million down from $120.6 million YoY.
  • Net sales $1,787 million FY 2020 down from $2,055.6 million FY 2019
  • Q4 net sales $326.2 million down from $541.5 million YoY

Takeaways: 

Adversely affected by CoVid. Consolidated net sales for their aerospace segment decreased approximately 32% during FY 2020. Cash flow was only down from $437.4 million FY 2019 to $409.1 million FY 2020. The Pandemic is likely to continue to impact HEICO negatively. HEICO will not issue guidance for FY 2021 for this reason. A lagged return to normalcy can be expected.

TUESDAY

Carmax

CarMax's New Omnichannel Shopping Experience

As the largest used car dealer in the United States, Carmax can give a good insight into consumer spending habits. The ebb and flow of spending will tell consumers’ activity levels and if they are affected by any external factors. Lockdown restrictions are a key factor in this.

 

  • The third quarter’s net earnings increased 35.9%, and net earnings per diluted share increased 36.5% YoY.
  • Total used units sold increased 1.0%, while used unit sales in comparable stores were down 0.8%
  • Gross profit per used unit of $2,151 was similar to the prior-year quarter.
  • Total wholesale units increased 10.8%, driven by a record Q3 buy rate.
  • Wholesale gross profit per unit decreased slightly to $906 despite sharp depreciation in the broader market.
  • CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) income increased 54.7% due to the combined effects of favorable loan loss performance, higher net interest margin, and an increase in average managed receivables.
  • Enthusiastic customer response to omnichannel experience with the majority of customers progressing more of their transaction online.

Takeaways:

Vehicle sales are down to 1% from 11% in total used vehicle unit sales with comparable store unit sales down to (0.8)% from 7.5% YoY. The surge in CoVid cases had a substantial impact on their sales when lockdown restrictions were tightened. Total used vehicle revenue increased mainly due to the average retail selling prices rising almost $700 per unit YoY. Other sales and revenues took a hit in the quarter, decreasing by $6.9 million in other revenues. Much of the business expansion hinges on vaccine distribution and return to normalcy to return to normal growth expectations.

WEDNESDAY

PAYCHEX 

File:Paychex logo.svg - Wikimedia Commons

Paychex is a mostly positive bag when it comes to the pandemic. The pandemic has accelerated the growth of their business due to their online and automated business model. Cloud-based technologies were exceedingly profitable and necessary pre-pandemic, and the need for them skyrocketed as business structures changed overnight. However, a decrease in jobs in the economy is bound to affect the business.

 

  • The Company raises guidance as second-quarter results reflect a sequential improvement in financial performance and key business metrics.
  • Diluted earnings per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share each increased 4% to $0.75 per share and $0.73 per share, respectively.
  • Second-quarter service revenue was consistent with the prior-year period at $968.9 million, compared to a YoY decrease of 6% in the first quarter.
  • Management Solutions revenue increased 1% to $732.8 million.
  • Total revenue decreased 1% to $983.7 million.

Takeaways:
Client base increases, and their suite solutions primarily drove increased revenue YoY in that segment. PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue decreased 3% YoY to $236.1 million due to the mass shift in worksite employment and premium collection. YTD FY 2021 has seen operating income decreased 8% to $638.3 million, which is a significant amount to business operations. Changes in their operating assets and liabilities produced a 24% drop in cash flows from operations YoY. The company expects an overall flat movement in the next six months, but this is subject to change when the economy turns to normal.

 

EDUCATIONAL LEARNING SEGMENT

“Get rich or die trying”- Frank Mercado.

 

Averaging down is an exciting high-risk, high reward investment strategy. Averaging down is the practice of buying more of your original investment (shares or contracts) after the price has fallen for a lower average cost per security. For example, if 100 shares were purchased at $20 per share, and then a further 100 shares were purchased at $18 per share, the average cost per share is lowered to $19. This means that if the share price rises to $19, then the investor breaks even. If the price returns to $20, then a profit is made. This isn’t for the faint of heart and is a quick way to blow up your account. Be sure to strongly evaluate your trade thesis to determine if the risk is worth the reward to you and the timeframe on the reversal that you are predicting.

 

 

 

 

 

Copyright © Tiger Wolf Capital  All rights reserved.

Our mailing address is:
info@tigerwolfcapital.com