Tag: blog

El Tigre Watchlist, Monday July 25th, 2022

Earnings, Interest Rate Decision: Be sure you read my previous newsletter

  • Anticipated earnings for this week
  • FOMC rate decision on Wednesday
  • Key levels to take note of.

Key News:

  1. Walmart Cuts Profit Outlook read more here 

  2. Paul Krugman admits he was wrong about inflation read more here
  3. Jim Cramer’s week ahead read more here
  4. Learn how to trade using Exponential Moving Average: read here

Here is a video walkthrough of the information on this watchlist

S&P 500, SPX 

SPX, weekly timeframe shows us a change in momentum from bearish to neutral. 

  • The weekly candle closed around $3,965.1 (could go either way) 
  • The weekly candle closed above bove the 5 and 9-day exponential moving averages ( bullish ) 
  • The weekly candle closed above the upper downtrend line (bullish) 
  • The weekly candle closed below the 20-day exponential moving averages (bearish) 

SPX, weekly candle updated with Monday’s price action

  • Small range so far low on Monday is $3,943 and $3,975, $30 range.
  • SPX cash closing price was just above the $3,965 price level, which also happens to be between the 5-day and 9-day EMAs.
  • We will need a strong close below or above these moving averages before we decide to pull the trigger on anything.

SPX 4hour time frame shows signs of a pullback, a rally, and another sell-off. 

  • I used the 14-day and 30-day simple moving average for the below chart. 14 day is blue, and 30 day is orange. 
  • As long as SPX stays below the $3,965 level, we can anticipate sellers to be in control. 
  • Ideally, on this time frame – went to target the 14-day SMA and then the 30-day SMA, below $3,965, target $3,902. 
  • Depending on the strength of this move or even so when this moves happens ( keep in mind big company earnings are being reported this week and FOMC), we can bounce around $3,902 back up towards $3,965. 
  • Below the 14-day SMA, we will continue to sell off, $3,860 is possible this week. 

$SPX 4hour time frame using 5 day / 9 day / 20 day EMA

  • The current price is between our 5 day exponential moving average ( purple ) and 9 day exponential moving average.
  • Look for a clear entry to enter a short: If the price on a 5 min or a 15 minute time frame closes below $3,965 and below both the 5 day and 9 day EMA, the target price would be around $3,916 / $3,900.
  • Look for a clear entry to enter a short: If the price on a 5 min or a 15 minute time frame closes above $3,965 and above both the 5 day and 9 day EMA, the target price would be around $3,970.

Nvida, $NVDA

I need you guys to read on my previous post above $NVDA – click here.  

 

  • I am personally looking to short NVDA once again after seeing price action reject the $181.58 level. 
  • I see a potential head and shoulder pattern forming on the 2hour and 4-hour time frames. (see below) 
  • Ideally, I would like to get into puts once the price action is below $171.38. 
  • The entry for this trade will trigger when using the 5 min or the 15 min timeframe, price closes below the 5-day and 9-day EMAs. 
  • I like the $165 puts for July 29th, or the $160 puts for August 5th. 
  • Aim for 20 or 30 percent ROI 

NVDA, here is the head and shoulder I am seeing. 

Read more on how to trade this pattern here: The Best Chart Patterns for Trading

Snowflake, $SNOW

  • Sitting on $140 support level. 
  • 5 / 9 / 20-day exponential moving averages are bearish. 
  • Price is below all moving averages bearish. 
  • I would be looking to enter a short position if the price remains below the $140 price level, and remember to use your 5 min / 15 min time frame to find the entry. 
  • I like the $130 / $135 puts for this week and the $130 puts for next week.

Tesla $TSLA 

After a good earnings report, Tesla’s trading range increases yet again! Get ready for some crazy short and long trades.

TSLA, weekly candle – we can either jump up towards $900 or come back down to $763 – gotta love it.

  • The weekly candle closed below $837 (bearish). We could see this turn out to be a double top and cause the stock price to return to $800.
  • I have the range between $820 and $816 to be considered “premium burn” – where price action will just be consolidating.
  • I would personally wait for a clear entry to short: Price closing below $800 and below the 5-day and 9-day EMA on a 5 min or a 15 min candle and target price would be $790 / $780.
  • I would personally wait for a clear entry to go long: Price action closing above the $820 price level and the 5-day and 9-day EMA on a 5 min candle. The target price will be $832 /

 

Tesla, $TSLA 4hour time frame

  • If the stock price falls below $800, we can see the price coming back to $763 / $753.

 

 

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El Tigre Watchlist, Wednesday July 20th, 2022

El Tigre Watchlist, Wednesday, July 20th, 202 $SPY ladies and gentlement – I present you a “rip your face off” green hammer.  The question is not “is $SPY going to hit $395 tomorrow”, but rather “once $SPY hits $395 tomorrow, are we going to stay above, or are we going to sell off” $SPY chart […]

El Tigre Watchlist, Tuesday July 19th, 2022

Bank and Tech companies kick off earning season for Quarter 2 of 2022. Apple, $AAPL (daily) Rejecting the $152 level, falling out of a rising wedge. Below $147, we can see $141 come very quick. I like $145puts for this week or $140 for next week / two weeks out. This rejection of the $152 […]

El Tigre Watchlist, Monday July 18th, 2022

$SPX (monthly, log scale) following the strong bearish candle close below the key purple trendline extending from 1985 with close below monthly 5/9/20ema converged. Current monthly candle appears to be taking a break as we have been consolidating in range for the past 5 weeks.   The purple trendline extending from 1985 has been a […]

El Tigre Watchlist, Tuesday July 12th, 2022

$SPX (weekly) we have been consolidating sideways for the past 4 weeks and that’s clear on the weekly timeframe. Last week’s candle close did not provide us with a clear direction as the weekly candle closed in the range of the prior week. For the last 4 weeks, we have been slowly consolidating towards the […]

Upstart Unusual Flow Analysis

February 1st,  2022 $UPST Upstart Summary:  Upstart is currently profitable and is experiencing triple-digit revenue and earnings growth. Upstart’s business model could have huge margins and the potential market for Upstart’s products and services are huge. Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform. The company’s platform aggregates consumer demand for loans […]

Interest Rate Decision and Company Earnings

January 26th,  2022   $SPX After very aggressive moves from the upside to the downside last week and earlier this week, SPX and SPY are both consolidating.  We are currently forming a Doji on the weekly candle. As we go into the second half of the week, be on the lookout to see whether we […]

UPST Upstart Analysis, February 2022

January 26th,  2022 $UPST Upstart Not really sure why, but I am absolutely loving this chart and this chart setup. I see a few things here and I will explain them in detail in this post. Summary:  Upstart is currently profitable and is experiencing triple-digit revenue and earnings growth. Upstart’s business model could have huge […]

Fed ready to tackle inflation with interest rate hike in March

Chair Jerome H. Powell said Fed officials believe the economy is strong the labor market is close to full employment and it’s time to tackle inflation.   Well, the first FOMC meeting is officially in the books, Chairman Jerome Powell held the much-anticipated conference at 2 pm today and answered questions from reporters shortly after. […]

Interest Rate Decision and Company Earnings

January 26th,  2022   $SPX After very aggressive moves from the upside to the downside last week and earlier this week, SPX and SPY are both consolidating.  We are currently forming a Doji on the weekly candle. As we go into the second half of the week, be on the lookout to see whether we […]

Why Does the Market Care About Interest Rates?

We’ve experienced what are typically entire year-long returns and volatility in the span of a week. Just when we thought we were through the wackiest and wildest period for markets, we’ve been rocked with another absolute bombshell of a sell-off in all growth names. This doesn’t happen randomly, and cannot be evaluated in a vacuum. […]

2022-01-03 Unusual Options Activity in CarGurus, Inc. (CARG), Energy Transfer LP (ET), and Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND)

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Why Are Corporate Executives Selling So Much Stock?

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The January Effect and Why it Matters

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Market Sell-Off Part 2: Zoom Earnings and 10 Year Treasury

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