Last week of July

Tuesday 7/26 AMC: $MSFT $GOOGL $V
Wednesday 7/27 AMC: $Meta $FOMC
Thursday 7/28 AMC: $AAPL $AMZN
Friday 7/29 BMO: $XOM $CVX

$SPX (monthly) Keep an eye on the monthly candles as they close this week. Following the bearish breakdown below the purple trendline extending the year 1985, we are likely closing this month with a green inside candle which is neutral but considering the bearish breakdown and rejection below monthly 5/9/20ema converged and pointing downward from above, bears have the edge until proven otherwise. Potential scenario is one where we close this month with current green inside bar candle and then start potential leg down next month with a inside down move below this month’s lows.

The purple trendline extending from 1985 has been a significant influence in the past as it has acted as major rally point as support/bottom following extensive market selloffs but at the same time, its also been the turning point where it has triggered major market selloffs following loss of support.  (note: Monthly time frame for the average trader is an eternity and should not be used to trade day to day.)

 

$SPX (weekly) bullish close above recent range and weekly 9ema. Held below blue trendline backtest but if FOMC and earnings week turns out bullish, expect a push toward the heavy resistance zone above where we have the purple channel, weekly 20ema/sma, and daily supply. A strong reversal there will likely start the next leg down with the purple channel as guide. If the market sell off this week, then look for breakdown below orange uptrend line line with close below 3721.

$SPX (daily) We have 2 potential scenarios but both will require patience. For the bullish scenario: Set alerts at daily supply, weekly 20ema, and channel resistance above, and if the market pulls back without a rally, we wait for price to close below orange uptrend line and 3721. Plan is to wait at least until after FOMC on Wednesday and assess the situation at that time. We may not even rally into our resistance area and even if we do, we may not get a daily reversal signal right away. (I will also be watching some of the sectors for bearish reversal confirmation)

 

$QQQ (Monthly, log scale) inside bar trading within prior months range. 5/9/20ema trending down from above should act as resistance until proven otherwise. Below we have horizontal and major channel support.

$QQQ (weekly) closed bullishly above weekly base and 5/9ema. Held below daily supply and short term ascending channel resistance for now. Purple channel and 20ema/sma resistances waiting above.

$QQQ (daily) Currently rejecting at daily supply zone. Again, best to wait until at least after FOMC on Wednesday or Friday after major ER is done to consider a trade. We have the resistances above at weekly 20ema and purple channel along with current ascending channel resistance where we can consider scaling in short. On the downside we have the false breakout reversal setup on a close back below 296 (preferably with close below 5/9/20ema) and then the current ascending channel breakdown entry short.

$IWM (monthly, log scale) consolidating above backtest support.

$IWM (weekly) base breakout with close above weekly 5/9 ema. Watch 20ema/sma above as resistance.

$DJI (monthly, log scale) inside month consolidating below 5/9/20ema.

 

 

$CL_F crude oil future (monthly, log scale) Dark cloud cover in June following 6 straight green months and at the peak of the rally from the 2020 lows. Also coming off rejection at major monthly supply (from the 2008 crash). Oil has participated in major market corrections in the past as seen in recent examples in 2020 and 2008 so there’s potential this could signal the next strong leg down in the market. Current monthly candle holding at monthly 9ema and channel support headed into the last week of the month. MACD converging and ready to bearcross on further weakness. In 2008, we had the monthly bearish engulfing reversal at the top, followed by a red candle close above 9ema before continued weakness and eventual crash.

$CL_F (weekly) backtested horizontal support (now resistance) and rejected. Currently holding at the ascending channel support.

 

 

$XLE Energy sector (monthly, log scale) bearish engulfing reversal at the top of the rally that started at the 2020 pandemic lows. Also false breakout reversal back below horizontal and channel support. Currently holding at uptrend line support. $XOM and $CVX making up +40% of $XLE reports earnings Friday BMO.

 

$XLE (weekly) holding above UTL and horizontal support

 

$IBB Biotech(Monthly, log scale) Currently rejecting at downtrend line. Watch the monthly candle close as it tries to wick back below 122 and monthly 5ema.

 

$IBB (weekly) $IBB has been a good indicator of $SPX direction this year as we saw in the recent rally when we bottom when $IBB hit its channel support and also in March $SPX rallied when $IBB bounced off the 122 level. Watch for false breakout reversal back below the double bottom neckline at 119.50.

 

$HGX Housing sector (monthly, arithmetic scale) Strong rejection off purple trendline which has been a key inflection point in the past. Following back to back months of spinning top (indecision) candles below purple TL resistance, we had a strong rejection candle in June. Current monthly candle rally off the horizontal support level. Historically when housing sector corrects, $SPX eventually follows.

$HGX (weekly.)We rallied when it had the false breakdown reversal a month ago. Need to see weekly reversal . I will set alerts at midpoint of last weeks candle to watch for weekly reversal toward the end of the week. The purple trendline should be major resistances if we rally into it.

 

$IYR real estate ETF (Monthly, arithmetic scale) Following the base breakdown from ATHs, we now have a bearish monthly candle close below prior horizontal breakout level (false breakout reversal). Similar situation happened in 2008 which lead to the market crash so bearish potential is there. Unless Bulls reclaim 94.71 on the monthly candle close this week, this could catch momentum to the downside after a narrow range inside month.

$IYR (daily) daily close below 94.23 would be bearish signal.

 

$IYT (monthly, Log scale) consolidating above backtest support at 205.

 

$IYT (weekly) at trendline backtest

$IYT (daily) double bottom breakout into trendline backtest resistance. Watch for close below 220.12 for false breakout reversal.

 

$SMH semiconductor (monthly, log scale) rallying off the monthly channel support.

$SMH (weekly) at horizontal support backtest and 20ema resistance. Like all the other sectors watch for potential bearish reversal to give us clues on the $SPX direction.

 

$XLF financial (monthly, log scale) Closed below monthly 5/9/20ema converged. Now backtesting major horizontal breakout resistance level. Break below would obviously be bearish. This is no ordinary prior double top level. This is double top of 2 market crashes.

$XLF (weekly) at downtrend line resistance and weekly 9ema

$XLP consumer staples (monthly, log scale ) shooting star to bearish engulfing reversal at ATHs. Monthly currently below 2 year uptrend line support with 5/9/20ema converged and consolidating above at horizontal support. MACD bearcross

$XLP (weekly) working on potential H&S. Watch for lower high (right shoulder) either at current 9ema or 20ema/sma above which could start the next wave down toward the neckline support.

$XLV health care(Monthly, log scale) consolidating sideways for over a year with 5/9/20ema converged and holding above key support at 125.

 

$XLY consumer discretionary (weekly, log scale) base breakout with cloes above 5/9ema and holding below horizontal resistance and 20ema/sma.

$KWEB (weekly) bearish false breakout reversal back below horizontal resistance. Holding at wedge support with 5/9/20ema converged

 

$HYG High yield corp bond (monthly , log scale) holding above blue channel support and backtesting red UTL.

$HYG (weekly) continuing higher after the base breakout the week before, closing above 9ema and approaching 20ema/sma and downtrendline resistance.

 

$BTC (weekly, log scale) base breakout over 5ema and holding below 9ema resistance.

$TLT (monthly) After hammering above the life time channel support and double bottom in June, current month trying to confirm bullishly.

 

$AAPL (monthly, log scale) ER 7/28 AMC (after market close). Currently a bullish engulfing candle with monthly candle closing this week.

$AAPL (weekly) closed above weekly 20ema/sma. If we continue the rally, watch for the channel backtest resistance. Also look for potential weekly reversal such as bearish engulfing candle close back below 20ema/sma.

 

$MSFT (Monthly, Log scale) ***ER 7/26 AMC. Depending on earnings, we will either see monthly hold above major channel support or a bearish breakdown below it.

 

$MSFT (weekly) above we have 20ema/sma and H&S backtest resistance. Currently consolidating and chopping around at monthly channel support zone with horizontal support at 244.50. Weekly close below will likely confirm major channel breakdown.

 

$GOOGL (monthly, log scale) Consolidating sideways for the past 3 months below 5/9/20ema. ***ER 7/26 AMC.

 

$GOOGL (weekly) consolidating sideways in box range for the past 3 months. Appears to be waiting for earnings to finally break out.

 

$AMZN (monthly, log scale) consolidating above the monthly backtest support with monthly 5/9/20ema resistances above. ***ER 7/28 AMC

$AMZN (weekly) chopping sideways above horizontal support. Breakdown below would be a short signal. Weekly 20ema/sma above should act as resistance along with monthly 5/9/20ema further above.

$TSLA (monthly) watch the monthly candle close as its currently right at 5/9ema resistance with the triangle backtest resistance above.

$TSLA (weekly) Bullish breakout above 8 week box consolidation and weekly 20ema and right below 20sma. Further above we have the backtest of the triangle support (now resistance). We could still see a bearish move back into the box for a false breakout reversal or rejection back below 20ema/sma.

 

$BRK.A (monthly, log scale) false breakout reversal confirmed as we closed back below prior breakout level with close below 5/9/20ema. First close below monthly 20ema/sma since march 2020. MACD bearcross. **ER Aug 8th.

 

$UNH (weekly, log scale) first sign of slowing down on this recent 5 week rally as it failed to hold new highs and closed within prior weeks range. Still above 5/9/20ema weekly.

$META (monthly, log) holding above horizontal support. ***ER 7/27 AMC

 

$JNJ (monthly, Log scale) working on potential false breakout reversal back below horizontal resistance within bearish ascending wedge pattern.

$V (monthly, log scale) consolidating above horizontal support in descending triangle with 5/9/20ema converged. ***ER 7/26 AMC

$NVDA (monthly, log scale) at backtest support below 5/9/20ema converged. A breakdown below channel and current horizontal support would be a strong bearish signal.

$XOM (monthly, log scale) Bearish dark cloud over pattern in June. Watch for close below last months candle body for confirmation. ****ER 7/29 BMO

$XOM (daily) working on right shoulder of potential H&S.

 

 

Most of the setups are demand/long setups. Remember you can have a higher time frame bearish outlook in the market and still daytrade these levels when they trigger for intraday gains. Remember you don’t have take every setup but knowing that you have plenty of solid setups to fall back on will make you more disciplined and avoid chop/weak/boredom trades. (Do not waste time looking for a trade or watching intraday 5/15min candles hoping for something to happen. Find a setup, set alerts, and forget about it until it triggers) Make sure to review prior triggered setups and see how they react. Also, if $SPY and the rest of the market is selling off aggressively and you are uncertain/confused – BEST to pass on long plays (or short plays if market is on an aggressive rally) or narrow focus onto just trading $SPY or sitting on hands . 1st Goal is to not lose money.

$ADBE (daily) short setup at 424.17

 

$ARKK (daily) short setup at 49.74

 

$BAC (4H) short setup at 35.66

$BIDU (daily) long setup at 120.15

$BMY (daily) long setup at 71.21

 

$DIS (daily) short setup at 106.79

$DKS (daily) short setup at 99.90

FB (daily) short setup at 194.67 ***ER 7/27 AMC

$GME (daily) long setup at 23.51

$GRPN (daily) long setup at 9.28

 

$IBM (daily) long setup at 117.37

$INTC (daily) short setup at 43.06

 

$LCID (daily) short setup at 24.64

$MGM (daily) short setup at 34.85

$MS (daily) short setup at 84.15

$MTCH (daily) long setup 66.82 and short setup at 84.25

$MU (daily) short setup at 68.65

$NFLX (daily) long setup at 192.50

 

$NIO (daily) short setup at 25.40

$OSTK (daily) long setup at 22.46 and short setup at 37.47 ***ER 7/28

$OKTA (daily) short setup at 117.75

 

$SNOW (daily) short setup at 178.75

$SQ (daily) short setup at 84.60

 

$TLRY (daily) Long setup at 2.80 (Massive demand zone where it had rallied +90% previously near all time lows.)

$TTD (daily) short setup at 53.40