Newsletter 3:

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“Some people want it to happen, some wish it would happen, others make it happen.”

– Michael Jordan

TABLE OF CONTENTS
  1. BIDEN 2020
  2. REVIEW OF LAST WEEK’S EARNINGS
  3. UPCOMING EARNINGS
  4. UPCOMING EVENTS & TALKS
  5. MERCHANDISE
  6. DISCORD RECAP
  7. EDUCATIONAL LEARNING SEGMENT
  8. BOOK OF THE WEEK
  9. PODCAST OF THE WEEK

MARKET LAST WEEK (11/2 – 11/6

BIDEN 2020

Over the next two weeks we will deal with recounts and lawsuits before the Supreme Court, but it is projected that Joseph R. Biden will be the next president of the United States of America. But what does this mean as far as policy making? The Democrats lost seats in the House of Representatives and are more than likely not going to win the Senate as they need a minimum of two seats with a Vice Presidential tie breaker to write and enact any bills. To paraphrase Andrew Yang, we have no government with a mandate. It will be incredibly difficult for the Democrats to pass any of their key legislation written in the DNC’s convention platform at least for the next two years until the midterm elections when Republican seats are up 2:1 to Democrats’ in the Senate.

How will the markets be affected? We can expect increased oversight of financial institutions if and when all the agency heads are confirmed by Congress. The IRS will also be staffed so we can expect increased tax collection. Mergers and acquisitions can also be expected to be a little tougher on restrictions with increased emphasis on monopolies or potential monopolies. What would be very difficult to envision? A key policy rollback of the 2017 Republican Tax Plan. Expect with Mitch McConnell at the head of the Senate to never see that rolled back without a minimum of two senators forcing a Vice Presidential tie breaker if the current Democratic Caucusing members remain at 48 in the Senate. Biden wishes to increase capital gains tax rates to 39.6%near the Obama administration levels, but McConnell will go to his grave before he allows that. The corporate environment outlook, even with increased oversight, looks bright. Democrats are much more willing to help people and in turn businesses with government stimulus. This bodes well for demand and corporate bottom lines. We can expect markets to remain in favorable conditions during the Biden presidency’s first two years with this environment.

REVIEW OF EARNINGS WE COVERED LAST WEEK

Monday, November 1st


Clorox

Clorox is in a very unique position as a health and wellness company because they are among those companies fortunate enough to find significant growth due to the pandemic as opposed to in spite of. Their professional products have seen double digit growth with the key driver being the total Clorox 360 system which has been extremely  popular amongst reopened companies amid the pandemic. Global demand and attention for sanitized environments has skyrocketed reflected in share prices increasing 40% on the year and Clorox is just getting started with their plan to capitalize on this as we heard on their earnings call.

CLX reported the following:

  • 27%  increase in company wide growth

  • International sales grew 18% across nearly every geography

  • Double digit sales growth in 8 of their 10 businesses

  • Gross margin expansion in every segment

Takeaways: 

Clorox performed extremely well, beating earnings and going on to raise their forecast for 2021. They have just posted their 8th consecutive quarter with gross margin expansion as a result of their aggressive cost savings program. They developed an out of home team to strengthen partnerships and existing relationships with companies like Uber, United Airlines, AMC, and Cleveland Clinic which may bode well for their dollar based net expansion. This coupled with their commitment to increased advertising spending, market innovation, and production capacity paint a very promising picture for their upcoming quarters.

Thursday, November 5th 

 

$BABA

Alibaba continues to show strength as a Chinese commerce and tech giant. They’ve adjusted to the pandemic and positioned themselves strongly to come out on top of the post-Covid19 world with their logistics and supply chain enhancements for e-commerce when dealing with deliveries of packages, takeout from restaurants, and grocery delivery.

  • 30% YoY Revenue Growth

  • Consumers: 881 MM (Mobile MAUs) 757 MM Annual Active Consumers

  • Profitability and Cash Flow: RMB 41.2 Bn (US $6.1 Bn) Adjusted EBITA, RMB 40.5 Bn (US$6.0 Bn) Non-GAAP Free Cash Flow

  • Marketplace-based Core Commerce Adjusted EBITA increased by 12% YoY to US $7,503 million.

  • Core Commerce Adjusted EBITA increased by 19% YoY to US $6,769 million, primarily due to an increase in marketplace-based core commerce adjusted EBITA , as well as reduced losses for local consumer services business. Core Commerce Adjusted EBITA margin was 35%.

  • Cloud Computing revenue increased by 60% YoY to US $2,194 million, primarily driven by growth in revenues from customers in the Internet, finance and retail industries. Adjusted EBITA was a loss of US $23 million

  • Digital Media and Entertainment revenue increased 8% YoY to US $1,188 million, primarily due to an increase in revenues from online games, partly offset by the decrease in revenue from customer management. Adjusted EBITA was a loss of US $105 million

  • Innovation Initiatives and Others revenue increased by 10% YoY US $173 million. Adjusted EBITA was a loss of US $351 million

Takeaways:

Alibaba’s Core Commerce Segment is carrying its other five segments with $699 million losses and still making US $6,070 million. Its cloud segment is rapidly growing and expected to continue to grow as we deal with Coronavirus and rapidly technologize society. During the quarter, merchant adoption of “Fulfilled by Cainiao” services continued to improve, with almost four million daily cross-border packages delivered in September 2020.

UPCOMING WEEK 11/9 – 11/13

EARNINGS

Monday:

$CGC (Before Market Open)

Canopy Growth Corporation is predicted to lose 23 Cents per share and EPS is expected to decrease by 15% from last quarter. While EPS isn’t a positive, revenue is expected to increase to $87.61 M and grow by 35%. We aren’t necessarily looking for a great earnings call but to use this as a baseline for the future under a Biden presidency. As the election comes to a close the possibility of legal marijuana nationwide under a Biden administration is very possible. There will become much more space for growth in the next 4 years.

$BYND (After Market Close)

BYND is a volatile stock that we often trade on its way down and up. For Q3 the estimated prediction for EPS is $.05 and its Revenue Estimate is $132.24M. With the possibility of another shutdown and stay-at-home orders the retail sales for Beyond Meat may continue to grow and provide a better EPS and Revenue in the upcoming quarters.

$NCLH (After Market Close)

NCLH will provide an outlook for Cruise stocks on what the entire sector has looked like through Q3. With 0 cruises setting sail and these ships having to idle in their ports Norwegian’s Q3 estimate is very grim. The estimate for EPS is $-2.24 and the Revenue is $.76M -100%, the election theme is continued as the Biden Administration will force social distancing and stay-at-home orders. As with most cruise and travel stocks it could be up to a year for any revenue to come in for these companies.

Tuesday:

$LYFT (After Market Close)

This is solely based on the election results of California allowing their drivers to be independent contractors. The Q3 earnings are expected to be pretty ugly as coronavirus has all but stalled business for LYFT. The estimate for EPS in Q3 is $-.92 and Revenue is $502.03M decreasing by -47.5%. In the same tone as BYND and NCLH under the Biden Administration with possible shutdowns and stay-at-home orders LYFT may be facing a few ugly quarters ahead.

Thursday:

$DIS (After Market Close)

Disney is a blue chip stock that has been hit hard due to Covid-19, over 30% of their business comes from theme parks and hotels. Their EPS estimate is $-.65, and revenue is expected to be $14.14B. In the next few quarters $DIS may have to rely on the Direct-to-Consumer, and Media Networks portions of their business with COVID-19 guidelines beginning to change.

Friday:

$DK (Before Market Open)

As more election results come in and sports betting is becoming legalized in many states, the space for sportsbooks is becoming massive. More and more states are continuing to pass laws for legal sports betting and Draftkings is on the leading edge. Their estimate for EPS $-.64 and Revenue is $132.19M, and we can expect these revenue projections to increase in future quarters.

EVENTS & TALKS

Monday: Fed Mester & Fed Harker Speeches at 1:30 and 2:20 pm EST, respectively

Tuesday: Fed Quarles Testimony at 2:00 pm EST

Thursday: U.S. Inflation rate YoY at 8:30 am EST. Fed Evans and Fed Williams Speeches at 1:00 and 2:00 pm, respectively

Friday: Fed Williams & Fed Bullard Speeches at 7:00 and 8:30 am, respectively

MERCHANDISE

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DISCORD RECAP

Thursday 11.05.20

We brought to attention $PLUG, an American energy company focused on creating clean energy.

We personally like to own shares in this company as well we have stock options for November 20th.

We entered into position around $18.09 and bought the $20 November 2020 calls for $0.95.

On Friday, Plug was up 5% and our contracts were up to $1.30 representing a 36% gain.

Friday 11.06.20

On Friday morning, we saw ROKU to have a very nice bullish setup and entered into the ROKU 245 calls for November 13th for $5.20.

JOIN OUR DISCORD
DISCORD

EDUCATIONAL LEARNING SEGMENT

“Do not celebrate when your trade goes green. Celebrate when you close your trade in the green.”

Oftentimes we tend to prematurely count our profits and overlook that nothing is guaranteed until we close out a trade. What tends to happen is a once green and profitable trade we leave it open and the trade then becomes a losing trade. Do not allow your trade to go bad.

BOOK OF THE WEEK
The Richest Man In Babylon by George Clason
Likewise to the book of the week last week the richest man in Babylon urges financial literacy. Through a series of parables/anecdotes. This book was first published in 1926 but it’s tales in regard to financial literacy dates back 4,000 years. Despite us living in the year 2020 there are concepts and principles of acquiring wealth that have remained timeless. It is one of the few books that not only urges saving for unfortunate times, and unexpected expenses. But also urges the importance of saving in the event an opportunity or investment comes along. The example this book uses is of a farmer using a windfall of cash to purchase fliverous items only later to be given the opportunity to invest in an irrigation system that would supply his town with water but due to his lack of saving has no other choice but to pass on the opportunity when approached by a peer. In addition, to urging savings and encouraging investing the book does cautious the reader to make informed investments a “a fool and his gold is soon parted” is a common motif within the pages.
PODCAST OF THE WEEK

Mindset Mentor with Rob Dial

How to Deal with Uncertainty 

We do not know how to prepare for the future, as people we struggle with uncertainty. Uncertainty inside of the human brain sounds like a threat. Roots in a control issue, wanting to control every single aspect of your life. Uncertainty changes internal state, wanting to control everything and not able to control anything causes stress and anxiety. Feeling stress, worry and anxiety comes from thinking about the future, something is uncertain.

How to have a better relationship with control problems and uncertainty?

Accept and Embrace that we control almost nothing. Learn to allow. Change the way you feel and think around certain situations.

Grab a Pen & Paper when you feel stressed or worry :

  • Ask yourself, are you okay right now?

  • Is there anything that is wrong?

  • Is there an immediate threat?

  • What exactly am I uncertain about?

  • What if it is not as bad as I have it in my head?

  • How will you respond to it?

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